To Whom It May Concern:
This note constitutes endorsement by the Mission Earth Activity for the global electric power system simulation project currently being planned by GENI (Global Energy Network Institute). The Mission Earth Activity is an organization within the Society for Computer Simulation.
To Mission Earth the project is perceived as a special global simulation undertaken to investigate the extent to which and the rate at which progressive interconnection of the existing system to new sources and new markets will be economically profitable and environmentally acceptable. It is of interest to Mission Earth because it is global in scope, it is long-term, and it will have to involve to some significant extent a consideration and possible inclusion of at least each of the following aspects of the global system affected: population growth as affected indirectly by the availability of more power, economics of power at a number of node points, environmental consequences (e.g., atmospheric pollution increases), benefits of power in markets reached by the power system, quality of life or other index of human status in each region, the effect of more power in some places upon international tensions, the effect of power upon each nation's or region's GNP (modified to account for negative effects upon the environment), depletion of any non replaceable resources used in producing power (intended to decrease with time), the consequences of varying the sequence of incorporating new sources, and other effects presumed to be smaller.
The use of simulation for this purpose is the next best thing to a crystal ball that works and has numerical output. This tool can be used to evaluate a variety of management and engineering alternatives. At a later stage, in a follow-on project, there will have been sufficient use of the simulation to enable GENT to identify and demonstrate the probable success of selected alternative policies for political units.
The proposed outlay for the project (approx. $1.6 million) is appropriate to the effort anticipated. The benefits could amount to tens or hundreds of times the cost in a decade or two.
Therefore, we endorse the project without reservation as being a good example of the simulation studies that Mission Earth is urging simulationists to undertake.
A. Ben Clymer, Chairman
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