Global Model Index
- World
2
- Regional
World III
- Regional
World IV
- Towards
a Fossil Free Energy Future
- Renewable
Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity
- IEA/ORAU
Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model (A84PC)
- World
Integrated Model
- Global
2000 Revisited: What Shall We Do?
- World3
(1974)
- World3/91
- STRATAGEM
- FUGI
- Futures of Global Interdependence
- GEWS
- Global Early Warning System
- GLOBUS
- Generating Long-Term Options By Using Simulation
- SARUM
- Systems Analysis Research Unit Model
- GIOM
- The Global Input-Output Model
- SIM/GDP
- IFs90
- International Futures
- LINK
- Threshold
21
- Global
Recall 2.0
- The
Bariloche Model
- Daisyworld
- SimEarth:
the Living Planet
- The
Global Dilemma: Guns or Butter
Acknowledgments
Help: Model Name - acronym description
Platform
Language
Description
Contact Information.
Areas included in model:
Economics, Environment, Energy, Population, Politics,
Natural Resources
** Note: Matrix contains mainly socio-economic
models, and doesn't address a wide range of other models
created to address specific fields such as climate/GCM
(general circulation model), manufacturing, traffic/transportation,
plant energy exchange, etc. This is clearly a subjective
classification. Many of the newer models add lots of
feedback.
** Note: If some information is not included,
that indicates that it was not released for publication.
These models have generally followed political/economic
decisions/policy lines. Chaos theory models are about
10% accurate, while other models are about 7% accurate.
** Note: SIMearth has been used to create artificial
societies for short-term and medium-term policies and
decisions.
** Note: GENI is looking for:
- Internet chat / dialogue / hypertext links
/ communications about models.
- Funding source to continue work on this matrix
via a library, management, and model training.
- Location
of a multi-user version of SIMearth for use on
a UNIX platform, written in TCLTK(?).
IBM PC compatibles.
World Dynamics program written in
DYNAMO language. BASIC may also be run so interactive
or batch use may be employed.
Jay Forrester's World Dynamics (1971) is a model which
analyzes the relationships between population, pollution,
capital investment and natural resources. Limits to
Growth successor model allows for the study of these
variables and their relationships.
Contact: Peter Brecke for questions on BASIC conversion
to PCs as well as specifics on World2.
Peter Brecke School of International Affairs
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30318-0610
Email: peter.brecke@inta.gatech.edu
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
DOS/ Windows
and Mac versions available.
Model written in FORTRAN
This model includes explicit decision-making criteria
based upon the user's ethical persuasions. The regional
structure allows simulation of differing sets of social/economic
variables within individual nations or political blocs.
This user-interactive system has successfully tracked
the direction of future socioeconomic trends.
Contact: Frederick Kile and Arnold Rabehl, Aid Association
for Lutherans, 1579 North Douglas St., Appleton, WI
54911
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Energy, Population, Natural Resources
Integrated
World Model (Regional World Model IV)
DOS/ Windows & Mac versions, written in FORTRAN with
4 interrelated programs that consist of 84 subroutines
The new model, Integrated World Model (Regional World
IV) integrates the user-decision-maker mechanism into
a computer-based socioeconomic model. It includes traditional
user-choice functions and adaptive value-driven interactive
processes.
Contact: Frederick Kile and Arnold Rabehl, Aid Association
for Lutherans, 1579 North Douglas St., Appleton, WI
54911.
For more inf. contact: Peter Brecke
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Energy, Population, Natural Resources
Towards a
Fossil Free Energy Future (1993)
IBM PC compatibles
Three computer models were utilized in the Fossil Free
Energy Scenario (FFES) Primary computer model
= LEAP
(Long-range Energy Alternative Planning).
This paper analysis presents a main scenario and several
variants for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and
the technical methods and assumptions used to develop
them. Goal = phase out fuel use over the next century
in order to combat global warming.
Contact: Michael Lazarus, Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington
St., Boston, MA 02116-3411
Areas included in model:
- --,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
Renewable
Energy: Sources for Fuels and Electricity
No software exists. Paper model only.
This model, written by Thomas B. Johansson, et al.,
states that if the global community were to make the
transition to a renewable-intensive energy economy,
there would be environmental, social, and other benefits
not measured by economic indicators.
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
The IEA/ORAU
Long-Term Global Energy-CO2 Model: Personal Computer
Version A84PC (1986)
IBM PC compatible.
Model is available in two forms - ready to run and uncompiled
FORTRAN.
The J.A. Edmonds and J.M. Reilly model enables the user
to modify, interactively, a total of 39 different major
assumptions from 12 categories (e.g., population, labor
productivity, and synthetic fuel costs) through the
use of an international data editor. Time frame = 100
years into the future. The model consists of four parts:
supply, demand, energy balance and CO2 emissions. An
uncertainty analysis is encompassed.
Contact: Center for Global Environmental Studies, CO2
Information Analysis Center
Environmental Sciences Division
Building 1000 MS 6335
PO Box 2008
Oak Ridge, TN 37831
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
World Integrated
Model (WIM)
DOS/ Windows & Mac versions, coded in FORTRAN and consists
of 49 subroutines.
WIM began in 1972 as a joint project between Mihajlo
Mesarovic and Eduard Pestel. WIM is a model which utilizes
21,000 numbers to describe the state of the global system
at any given point in time. The world is divided into
12 regions and represents integrated global variables
such as population, energy, natural resources, trade,
etc. GLOBESIGHT has superseded WIM. WIM was originally
funded by the Volkswagen Foundation.
Contact: Peter Brecke
School of International Affairs
Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30318-0610
Email: peter.brecke@inta.gatech.edu
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
Global 2000
Revisited: What Shall We Do? (1993)
No software exists. Paper model is an update of the
computer model Global 2000
Global 2000, used during the Carter administration as
a decision-making tool, is a model which covers the
critical issues of the 21st century. It is based on
projections of probable changes in the world economy,
population, resources, and environment. The updated
paper version gives an in-depth analysis of these issues
and further predictions for the turn of the century.
Contact: Gerald O. Barney
Institute for 21st Century Studies
1611 North Kent St., Suite 204
Arlington, VA 22209-2111
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Politics, Natural
Resources
World3 (1992)
The World3 code from 1971 needs a DYNAMO compiler. It
is run on DOS/ Windows.
World3 was designed by Dennis & Donella Meadows and
later became the subject for their book, Limits To Growth.
The sequel Beyond the Limits used a slightly modified
model called World3/91. World3 includes a range of scenarios
from disaster to sustainability. Assumptions are programmable.
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
World3/91
IBM PC compatibles. Needs a STELLA simulation package.
This model was developed from the Meadows' book Beyond
the Limits which demonstrated that the current trends
could be manipulated to result in economic demise or
a sustainable future, depending on the causal relationships
between variables over the long term.
Contact: Dennis Meadows, University of New Hampshire,
Laboratory for Interactive Learning - Hood House, 89
Main St., Durham, NH 03824-3577, Tel: 603-862-2186 FAX:
603-862-1488
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
STRATE-GEM
MAC, IBM PC compatibles
STRATAGEM is a dynamic simulation addressing global
issues such as economic and population growth in a decision-making
environment. The World Bank is currently using this
sophisticated game in its training programs.
Contact: Dennis Meadows, University of New Hampshire,
Laboratory for Interactive Learning - Hood House, 89
Main St., Durham, NH 03824-3577, Tel: 603-862-2186 FAX:
603-862-1488
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Population, Politics
FUGI
Futures of Global Interdependence
Data collection in process
FUGI, the longest-lived global integrated model was
the first computer simulation to be created outside
of the western world. It was developed as a tool for
providing global issues to the world community for the
purpose of policy formation. Originally a compilation
of three models, Yoichi Kaya of Osaka University undertook
this project in 1976.
Contact: Professor Akira Onishi, see GEWS inf. on next
page.
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Population, Politics, Natural Resources
GEWS
(Global Early Warning System)
Data collection in process
GEWS, the longest lived global model, has undergone
continuous development. It began in the mid 1970's under
the name of FUGI as a response to Donella & Dennis Meadows
and J. Randers' World3. Variables include: disarmament,
foreign aid, protectionism, and economic growth. The
updated version includes hard variables such as economics
as well as soft variables such as human rights, and
specifically is a tool used in locating displaced persons.
GEWS is funded by the Japanese Ministry for International
Trade & Industry (MITI) and the Japanese Economic
Planning Agency (EPA).
Contact: Professor Akira Onishi @ the Institute of Applied
Economic Research at Soka University 1-236, Tangi-cho
Hachioji-shi, Tokyo 192 JAPAN Tel: 81-426-91-2211 or
9430, FAX: 81-426-91-3719
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Population, Politics, Natural Resources
GLOBUS
(Generating Long-Term Options By Using Simulation)
IBM PC compatibles
Micro-GLOBUS runs on DOS/ Windows
GLOBUS is one of the most recent integrated models.
It has sub-models for domestic politics, international
relations, and government budgetary decision-making.
There are no comprehensive scenarios for food, energy,
or demographics. Co-designed by the late Karl Deutsch.
Contact: Professor Stuart Bremer, Dept. of Political
Science, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY 13901.
Tel: 607-777-4398
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Population, Politics
SARUM
(Systems Analysis Research Unit Model)
Mainframe computer
SARUM began in 1974 under Peter Roberts. It was the
starting point for other models, as it was a multi regional
economic model which encompassed environmental issues.
The first practical use was in the Interfutures Project
of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
- U.K. Basic goal of the model is Pareto's Optimum,
increasing the quality of life for the masses without
diminishing another group's well-being.
Contact: Peter Brecke
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population,Natural Resources
The Global
Input-Output Model (GIOM)
Mainframe computers, partially run on PCs
The Global Input-Output Model was developed by Wassily
Leontif, Petri, and Carter in the mid 1970's. The model
contains 16 regions with 44 industries each, and linearly
maps economic trends over 6 decades. Funded by the United
Nations, they also published a companion work entitled
The Future of the World Economy (1977). WI is known
as the UN Model which was later revised by Lentil and
Fay Du chin at NY in 1983. The most recent version (The
World Model) is outlined in Du chin and Flange's book,
The Future of the Environment (1994),
and is funded by the Norwegian government.
Contact: Dr. Faye Duchin at NYU, New York, NY
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Politics, Natural
Resources
SIM/GDP
Data collection in process
SIM/GDP is a socio-economic model under the direction
of Viktor Gelovani. This model, created in 1977, is
a conglomeration of sub-models dealing with science
and technology which interact with the main global model.
Contact: Sergey Dubovsky @ Institute for Systems Analysis,
Russian Academy of Sciences, 9 Prospekt 60-Let Oktyabria
117312, Moscow RUSSIA Tel: 7-095-135-6093, Email: postmast@isa.msk.su
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Natural Resources
IFs90 (Intl.
Futures)
IBM PC compatibles, Microsoft BASIC
Designed by Barry Hughes in 1990, IFs90 incorporates
significant aspects of WIM, SARUM, and WIOM. IFs90 is
a human development model which represents demographics,
energy supply, food production, and economic development
in 10 global regions. It is an interactive model with
a base case scenario. The mid-80's version of IFs was
the first integrated global simulation to run on a PC.
Contact: Barry B. Hughes, Vice Provost for Graduate
Studies, University of Denver, CO 80208-001
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Politics, Natural
Resources
LINK
United Nations in-house mainframe computer
LINK began in 1969 with 7 industrialized country models.
LINK is an econometrics model used by the United Nations
for policy analyses and economic decision-making. It
is a short to mid-term model which encompasses national
economic analyses. It essentially "links" various macroeconomics
models for 79 countries/regions.
Contact: Peter Pauly
Project LINK Coordinator
University of Toronto
140 St. George St.
Toronto, ON M5S 1A1
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Population, Natural Resources
IBM PC compatibles
Threshold 21 is a national decision-making model based
on sustainable development. The Millennium Institute
has currently applied the model to Bangladesh in interactive
or base-case versions. China, India, and the Australian
case are in progress. The core of Threshold 21 is the
World Bank's Revised Minimum Standard Model (RMSM) which
creates an economic-centric base. The parameters include
demographics, health care, food and nutrition, international
trade, national accounts, environment, education, agriculture,
etc.
Contact: Dr. Weishuang Qu, Director of Information Systems,
Millennium Institute, 1611 North Kent St., Ste. 204,
Arlington, VA 22209-2135
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Energy, Population, Politics, Natural
Resources
Global
Recall 2.0
Mac Plus, Classic or above with 2 Mb, System 6.05
or higher
Global Recall 2.0 is based on Buckminster Fuller's
World Game which enables the participants to allocate
resources with the maximum return to the planet. Data
categories include 8 sectors, 200 scaled maps, and
a newsletter function which provides vital information.
Contact: World Game Institute
3215 Race Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-2597
215-387-0220
Areas included in model:
- Economics, Environment, Energy, Population, Politics,
Natural Resources
The Bariloche
Model
Mainframe computers.
This model's principal focus is the pursuit of the question,
"What future world would be best for humankind?" through
the use of mathematics optimization. The Bariloche Model
was a response to World3, and originated from a meeting
in Brazil with the Club of Rome and the Universitario
Pesquisas de Rio de Janeiro. The Bariloche Group preferred
a model which would outline the path to sustainable
development rather than predict doomsday. The Bariloche
Model was officially presented in 1974 to IIASA.
Contact: Jacqueline Prud'Homme
International Development Research Center
PO Box 8500, Ottawa, CAN K1G 3H9
Tel: (613) 236-6163
FAX: (613) 238-7230
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Population, Natural Resources
Daisyworld
Mac Plus or above.
Daisyworld is based on James Lovelock's Gaia Hypothesis
of an interconnected Earth. This is an interactive model
which focuses on a planet like Earth, yet much more
simplistic. The basic assumption is that the Daisyworld's
living systems affect climate. Daisies are a variable
of manipulation as is the sun's intensity. The user
can adjust the equations and model parameters.
Contact: Kenneth Simons
Dept. of Social and Decision Sciences
Carnegie-Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
Areas included in model:
- Environment,
Energy, Natural Resources
SimEarth The Living Planet
DOS, Windows and Mac versions
SimEarth is a planet simulation game which may be run
in two modes: game and experimental. Variables revolve
around all facets of Earth such as climate, atmosphere,
flora, fauna, beings, etc. SimEarth is the closest traditional
model to the newly developed "artificial society" simulations.
Contact: Designers Will Wright and Fred Haslam, MAXIS
Two Theater Square, Ste. 230
Orinda, CA 94563-3401
Tel: 510-254-9700
FAX: 510-253-3736
Areas included in model:
- Environment,
Energy, Population, Politics, Natural Resources
The Global Dilemma: Guns or Butter
IBM PC compatible, Mac Plus, SE or II computer
This model is a computer simulation game centered around
macroeconomics. The purpose of the game is to control
the world's resources, make weapons, and conquer the
world. Contact: Chris Crawford
Mindscape Inc., 19808 Nordhoff Place, Chatsworth, CA
91311
Areas included in model:
- Economics,
Environment, Population, Politics, Natural Resources
Special thanks to John McLeod for his simulation expertise
and insights, Peter Brecke for his abundant information,
editing, and advice, Walter
Venable for his matrix design and formatting, and
Tom
Zaengle for all of his help.
Global Model Index compiled by Amy
Bruton for Global Energy Network Institute (GENI),
1995.
All contents Copyright
© 1995 , Global Energy Network Institute (GENI).
All Rights Reserved.
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