Pooling
power in East Africa
By Neil Ford
25-09-2002 The development of the East African Community
(EAC) has given encouragement to efforts for improvement
of transmission links in the region and the political
and economic jealousies of yesteryear are being replaced
by healthy competition. In place of grand schemes
for industrialisation, the governments of Kenya, Uganda
and Tanzania are targeting a step by step approach
to development. In the power sector, this new approach
is manifested by the realisation that each of the
EAC members cannot hope to be self sufficient in power
generation in the long term.
While the power pools of West and Southern Africa
attract a great deal of publicity, the EAC's East
African Power Master Plan (EAPMP) has received far
less attention. The plan involves a series of improvements
to power connections in the region and demonstrates
that the three governments have agreed to the creation
of an integrated power pool, at least in theory. Although
the region lags behind the development of the Southern
African Power Pool (SAPP), it could well be in place
before its West African equivalent.
The key to the EAPMP is the 330 kV line planned between
the Kenyan capital Nairobi and the EAC "capital" and
northern Tanzanian town of Arusha. As a transmission
line already exists between Uganda and Kenya, the
new connection would enable the transfer of spare
power production in one EAC member state to either
of the others. The Nairobi-Arusha line has been mooted
for some time but in May this year, Don Rairoh, the
Kenyan Ministry of Energy's chief geologist, indicated
that the feasibility study had been finalised and
so construction work could now begin. According to
the Kenyan Ministry, the connection could be in use
by the end of 2004.
Beyond the obvious implications for East Africa,
this could also tie the three countries into the SAPP,
as Tanzania is a member of both projects. Construction
work on another 330 kV transmission line, this time
from Pensulo in Zambia to Mbeya in south west Tanzania,
has already begun. The 670 km line is expected to
cost $ 153 mm and is scheduled for completion in 2004.
Although the ability of East Africa to pay for large
scale power imports is in some doubt, a transmission
grid stretching from Cape Town to Mombasa could be
in place by 2005.
EXPORTING POTENTIAL
However, if even half of the generation plants planned
for East Africa over the next few years are actually
brought on stream, the region could actually find
itself as a power exporter. While this seems a far
fetched concept at this stage, such a scenario is
not beyond the realms of possibility. Moreover, the
diversity of planned generating projects provides
some assurance that power sector planners have finally
learnt the lesson of over dependency.
At present, 75 % of East Africa's generating capacity
is provided by HEP, enabling the devastating droughts
of the past five years to have a terrible impact upon
power supplies. Throughout the long 1999-2001 drought,
levels at a number of dams steadily fell so low that
production hadeither to be severely curtailed or,
in the case of the Tanzania Electric Supply Company
(Tanesco) Mtera plant, shut down entirely. However,
because Uganda was not nearly as badly afflicted as
the two coastal states, increased HEP capacity around
the region could provide part of the solution.
Most parts of East Africa have two rainy seasons,
separated by long, dry periods. However, the timing
and intensity of the rains vary somewhat, so that
increased production capacity in Uganda could be transmitted
to Kenya and Tanzania if the circumstances and severity
of the 1999-2001 drought were ever to be repeated.
The Ugandan government and Uganda Electricity Board
(UEB) have lined up five major generating projects
to boost domestic capacity and to provide enough for
increased exports. The new Karuma dam plant will contribute
up to 200 MW, while the modernisation of the Nalubaale
HEP plant should add another 180 MW.
The keynote project, however, is the famed $ 550
mm Bujagali Falls plant. To be built and run by AES
Nile Power, the first phase of the project would provide
250 MW, while subsequent expansion could produce a
massive 2,000 MW. Environmental and wildlife groups
mounted a vigorous campaign to oppose the construction
of the plant, arguing that it would affect water flow
downstream, disturbing a number of important habitats.
The World Bank was concerned about both these and
financial issues. The plant will only be cost effective
if the Uganda shilling does not depreciate too rapidly
and so the Bank sought reassurances from the Ugandan
government about economic policy. Following the publication
of its Inspection Panel report, the World Bank finally
gave its go-ahead to the project at the end of June,
although it insisted that geothermal alternatives
also be investigated. The Kalagala Falls area is also
to be set aside as a protected habitat.
Callisto Madavo, the World Bank's Vice President
for Africa, said: "Uganda is a country where less
than 3 % of the population has access to electricity,and
electricity shortages have substantially impeded investment,
private sector development and economic growth." Doubts
remain about the strain that could be placed upon
the state coffers from the government's share of investment
costs. However, if as expected most capacity at the
plant is not required domestically, excess production
can hopefully be exported to the rest of East Africa
and even further afield.
While greatly increased HEP capacity in Uganda would
make a major contribution to improving power supplies,
it will still leave the region vulnerable to widespread
drought. A completely separate initiative, however,
could help to rectify this problem and diversify power
sourcing. The Songo Songo gas project in Tanzania
will add a sizeable 112 MW in the short term but could
also lead to further capacity in the future.
The $ 183 mm scheme will enable the estimated 1 tcf
of gas offshore Songo Songo Island in Kilwa Province
to be exploited. The gas will be transported to a
gas processing facility onSongo Songo Island itself,
before it is transported to the new Ubungo power plant
in Dar es Salaam. The plant is to be oil fired until
the gas is brought on stream.
After decades of oil and gas exploration in the Indian
Ocean off East Africa, this project finally demonstrates
that profitable development is possible. Given that
95 % of productive oil or gas wells are drilled within
100 miles of other productive wells, it was always
going to be difficult to attract oil and gas companies
into the Indian Ocean. Now that production has begun,
it makes it much more likely that other production
could be brought on stream.
Capacity at the Ubungo plant could be boosted by
the addition of the further turbines, but the Tanzanian
government must be keeping its fingers crossed that
other fields can be opened up and other power plants
created. Industrial development in Tanzania has been
particularly slow and according to PricewaterhouseCoopers,
the unreliability, scarcity and expense of power supplies
has been the main cause of this. The World Bank is
confident that Songo Songo can help to tackle all
three problems. After that, the government must do
all in its power to keep the ball rolling. Industrial
investment could feed into further gas and power projects,
which in turn could attract new manufacturing schemes.
The World Bank report on the project predicted that
the government will earn $ 25 mm a year from taxes
and royalties, in addition to cutting its own electricity
bills by a quarter. It also estimates that one of
Tanzania's largest industrial concerns, the Twiga
Cement Plant, will cut its power bills by an average
$ 2 mm a year over the next two decades. Even if the
gas was to run out in 20 or 30 years, plants such
as Ubungo can be converted to — albeit more expensive
— oil fired generation and the new transmission connections
being set up in the region would enable excess power
to be exported, possibly even to regional superpower
South Africa.
MORE POWER FOR KENYA
Kenya is the biggest
power consumer in East Africa, consuming 60 % of all
production in the region. Although it is expected
to increase its power imports over the next few years,
other plants are also in the pipeline. Power generator
KenGen plans four new diesel power plants at Eldoret,
Embakasi, Lanet and Ruaraka, and the capacity of the
Masinga Reservoir will also be increased. In addition,
the company is keen to develop its geothermal technology.
The Olkaria geothermal plant already provides 6
% of Kenyan capacity and according to KenGen managing
director, Isaac Boindet, geothermal plants would contribute
a 575 MW to the national grid by 2017. This is equivalent
to 25 % of projected demand.
As with all development projects, it makes far more
sense to develop a wide range of power sources rather
than to place all your eggs in one basket. Provided
that high production from one source can make up for
falls elsewhere, this helps to spread risk and to
ensure the reliability of supplies — a vital
ingredient for industrial consumers.
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