1. Electric load forecasting using artificial neural network and deficit management
The neural network was constructed with one input
layer of five nodes, one hidden layer, and one output
layer with one node. The inputs were selected on
the basis of availability of data in the historical
database. The forecast was 24-hour-ahead forecast
with inputs of prior days, including total load,
temperature, and forecast of temperature. The single
output forecast was total daily load.
2. Individual Credit Rating
3. Commodity MarketsFor textile mills, cotton accounts for a very large percentage of cost of production. For one cotton variety, we used historical data to make forecasts. Using statistical and ANN models, the short term predictions were within 1 to 2 percent of the actual prices. The long term trends were good only with the ANN model. The model provided optimal strategy for purchase of cotton for the textile mill.
4. Macroeconomic AnalysisIn order to study inflation in India, a macroeconomic multivariate model was developed using ANN methodology. The data consisted of twenty-one years of average monthly values of five significant variables. These five variables were: real effective exchange rate (REER), money supply (M3), index of industrial production (IIP), food arrivals (F), and the wholesale price index (WPI). It was found that the usual statistical approach was reasonable only when making a univariate time series study of M3 and WPI. All other variables had nonlinear features. The multivariate ANN model was the best in making very accurate (mean error 1-2%) short-term forecasts and long-term trends (mean error up to 4%). The multivariate model also helped generate alternative scenarios. For example, it was possible to forecast the change in inflation rate and industrial activity by giving impulses to REER and M3.
The crucial policy implication is that within the objective of price stability there exists a case for intervention by the Central Bank up to a limit set by equilibrium rate of real exchange rate.
5. Marketing ModelsCarried out a variety of marketing studies for a major multinational company in India, manufacturing consumer products of daily use.
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