Scenario for 2050 With Total End of Coal, Reduced Nuclear and Natural
Gas Seen as Realistic; Lights Would Stay On Even "When the Wind Doesn't
Blow ... And the Sun Doesn't Shine".
WASHINGTON, D.C.///April 17, 2013///If the U.S. ceases to burn coal, shuts
down a quarter of existing nuclear reactors, and trims its use of natural
gas by 2050, the resulting increased reliance on wind, solar and other renewables
will not result in a less reliable electricity grid, according to a major
new report prepared by Synapse Energy Economics, Inc., for the nonprofit
Civil Society Institute (CSI).
Available online at http://www.civilsocietyinstitute.org/synapsereport, the
new study finds that, in the envisioned 2050 with a heavy reliance on renewables,
regional electricity generation supply could meet or exceed demand in 99.4
percent of hours, with load being met without imports from other regions
and without turning to reserve storage. In addition, surplus power would
be available to export in 8.6 percent of all hours, providing an ample safety
net where needed from one region of the U.S. to the next.
Grant Smith, senior energy analyst, Civil Society Institute said: "This
study shows that the U.S. electricity grid could integrate and balance many
times the current level of renewables with no additional reliability issues.
Recent improvements in both renewable technologies themselves and in the
technologies that are used to control and balance the grid have been proceeding
at a rapid pace, and the incentives and rewards for success in this area
continue to drive substantial progress. In contrast, the alternative-continuing
to rely on increasing combustion of fossil fuels to generate electricity,
and producing ever-increasing levels of greenhouse gases-is far less feasible,
and presents much more daunting technical, economic, and social challenges
to human and environmental welfare. In comparison, the challenge of integrating
increasing levels of solar and wind power on the U.S. power grids requires
only incremental improvements in technology and operational practices."
Report co-author Dr. Thomas Vitolo, analyst, Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.: "Put
simply, the message today is this: It is a myth to say that the United States
cannot rely on renewables for the bulk of its electricity generation. This
study finds that the projected mixes, based entirely on existing technology
and operational practices, are capable of balancing projected load in 2030
and 2050 for each region-in nearly every hour of every season of the year."
In 2011, Synapse prepared a study for the Civil Society Institute that introduced
a "Transition Scenario" in which the United States retires all
of its coal plants and a quarter of its nuclear plants by 2050, moving instead
toward a power system based on energy efficiency and renewable energy. The
Synapse study for CSI showed that this Transition Scenario, in addition to
achieving significant reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and
other pollutants, ultimately costs society less than a "business as
usual" status quo strategy -- even without considering the cost of carbon.
The 2011 study also projected that, over 40 years, the Transition Scenario
would result in savings of $83 billion (present value) compared to the status
quo strategy.
To achieve these lower-cost and low-emissions results, the Transition Scenario
included large amounts of renewable energy resources with "variable
output," such as wind and solar. While the need for variable-output
resources is well defined, questions have been raised about the impact of
large-scale wind and solar integration on electric system reliability. To
address this, Synapse paid careful attention to the amount of wind and solar
in each region when designing the Transition Scenario for the 2011 report,
taking steps to ensure that the projected regional resource mixes could respond
to all load conditions.
The new 2013 study for the Civil Society Institute takes the analysis one
big step farther, in order to explore the extent to which the Transition
Scenario's resource mixes for 2030 and 2050 are capable of meeting projected
load for each of the 10 studied regions - not just during peak demand conditions,
but in every hour of every season of the year as consumers require.
METHODOLOGY
Synapse developed a spreadsheet-based hourly dispatch model to test the capability
of the Transition Scenario resource mix in each study region to meet hourly
demand in that region. Hourly load data for each region was based on 2010
actual demand, and was adjusted - considering changes in demographics, wealth,
and energy efficiency-so that the peak load and annual energy requirements
closely matched those in the 2011 Transition Scenario. Data for these tasks
were obtained from FERC 2011, NERC 2012, and U.S. EPA 2011. The generators
used in the model came from the BBAU 2011 Transition Scenario.
To model the hourly generation of variable resources, a number of National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) studies and data sets were used. To model
hourly wind generation, data sets from NREL's Eastern Wind Integration and
Transmission Study (EnerNex Corporation 2011) and Western Wind and Solar
Integration Study (GE Energy 2010) were applied to the power curve of a Vestas
V 112 3.0 MW turbine. To model solar output, site specific data from NRELs
PVWatts calculator was used. Annual hydroelectric capacity factors from the
2011 report were used for the Northeast, Southeast, Eastern Midwest, and
Texas regions; monthly hydroelectric capacity factors from the U.S. Bureau
of Reclamation were used for the Northwest, California, Arizona/New Mexico,
Rocky Mountains, Western Midwest, and South Central regions.
ABOUT THE GROUPS
Based in Newton, MA, the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute
(http://www.CivilSocietyInstitute.org) is a think tank that serves as a catalyst
for change by creating problem-solving interactions among people, and between
communities, government and business that can help to improve society. Since
2003, CSI has conducted more than 25 major national and state-level surveys
and reports on energy and auto issues, including vehicle fuel-efficiency
standards, consumer demand for hybrids/other highly-fuel efficient vehicles,
global warming and renewable energy. In collaboration with the Environmental
Working Group, the Civil Society Institute has initiated the American Clean
Energy Agenda (http://www.americancleanenergyagenda.org/), an effort calling
for bold steps to move the United States toward a clean, safe energy future,
which has been endorsed by over 110 organizations representing more than
1.7 million Americans.
Synapse Energy Economics, Inc. (http://www.synapse-energy.com) provides research,
testimony, reports and regulatory support on energy, economic, and environmental
topics. Synapse has a professional staff of 30 with more than 300 years of
combined experience in the electricity and natural gas industries. Synapse
assesses the implications of electricity and natural gas industry planning,
regulation and restructuring. Synapse's work covers various interrelated
issues such as transmission planning, service reliability, siting, fuel diversity,
resource planning, financial and economic risks, renewable energy potential
and renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency, electricity modeling,
portfolio management, customer service and more. Synapse works for a wide
range of clients throughout the United States, including attorneys general,
offices of consumer advocates, public utility commissions, a variety of environmental
groups, foundations, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Department
of Justice, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners,
and others.