Global PV installations for 2011 could have topped 26GW, say analysts

Jan. 10, 2012 - Mark Osborne - pv-tech.org

The record PV installation figures of 7.5GW for Germany in 2011 have two separate leading market research firms agreeing on total new PV installations topping 26GW for the year; around a 50% increase of 2011 installations of over 17.5GW.

Although IMS Research is not expecting to release final figures for 2011 until next month, senior research director for PV, Ash Sharma told PV Tech that its revised forecast in November of 24GW was in the bag and wouldn’t be surprised that total installations hit 26GW given the real surge in December.

Sharma noted that IMS had felt confident of its actual published forecasts for Germany throughout the year, via its quarterly Demand Database service. In the first quarter of 2011, IMS had projected 6.8GW of installations, 8GW in Q2 and 7.3GW in its Q3 projections for the full-year.

Dr Henning Wicht, at IHS iSuppli said that revised figures of 25GW a month ago looked solid and that final figures could easily reach 26GW. One of the other key markets, Italy, could help push installs into the 26GW range as final figures could be anywhere in the 6-7GW range.

Wicht noted that demand in Germany could point to a pattern of growth across key markets and that the fundamental IIR drivers in Germany could continue with strong demand through the end of the second quarter. He wouldn’t rule-out installations in Germany reaching 4GW by the end of June when FiT regressions kick-in, mid-year.

We will have to wait for revised 2012 forecasts but the positive developments in Germany and expected 25-30% average module price declines expected in 2012 could result in continued strong installation growth.