Linking
Renewable Energy Resources:
A Compelling Global Strategy for Sustainable
Development
Overview
The
expansion of high-voltage AC and DC interconnected
systems continues to develop around the world.
The power pools of North America, UCPTE, CENTREL,
the CIS and Nordel networks are proven energy
infrastructure -- providing enormous cost
savings in power trading, reduced capacity
requirements and emergency backup. Economic
growth in Latin America, India, China and
Southeast Asia is driving the demand for more
capacity and the transmission systems to deliver
this power.
As
in the past several decades, the overwhelming
majority of the power development is from
fossil and nuclear sources. The most blatant
contemporary example is China. Adding a large
thermal station every month is planned over
the next 20 years. While starting from a very
low consumption per capita, this energy development
rate is projected to make China the world's
largest polluter within the next decade.
There
is a solution to the dilemma of energy needs
vs. pollution. Long distance transmission
is now capable of reaching far beyond political
boundaries. By tapping some of the planet's
abundant renewable energy resources in remote
locations, we can now provide the electricity
necessary for development in an environmentally
sustainable manner.
The
Global Challenge
The 1996 Report from the World Resources Institute,
World Bank, UNEP and UNDP projects major global
challenges(1). By 2025, our current population
of 5.9 billion is projected to become 8.3
billion, with most of this growth in the developing
countries. Mega-cities will emerge as 90%
of population growth will be in urban areas.
Critical water shortages are expected. Today,
humanity has not fully provided for itself.
Over two billion people in developing countries
live without electricity or clean drinking
water. They lead lives of misery, especially
women and children who walk several kilometers
daily for water and firewood merely to survive.
The
World Energy Council projects a doubling of
primary energy demand over this same time
period, driven by the population and economic
growth of the developing nations (2). The
1997 Kyoto Climate Agreement to reduce greenhouse
emissions by 5% from 1990 levels was limited
to OECD nations. Even with this commitment,
greenhouse gas emissions will certainly increase
as the developing world grows economically.
When these trends are studied in total, the
prognosis is not healthy for billions of people
or the planet.
Alternative Energy Futures
(World Energy Council demand scenarios)
Yet
a solution does exist that can provide a solid
foundation for sustainable development. With
the expansion of HVAC and HVDC systems, the
tapping of large renewable energy resources
has the potential to:
- increase
the standard of living for everyone
- reduce
fossil fuel use and the resultant pollution
- reduce
deforestation, topsoil erosion, and desertification
- reduce
poverty and world hunger
- open
markets and enhance world trade
- promote
international cooperation and peace
Global
Design Science
The strategy proposed in this paper is born
from a unique method of inquiry -- comprehensive
anticipatory design science. This approach
was championed by Dr. R. Buckminster Fuller,
visionary engineer, cartographer and mathematician.
We argue that most problems cannot be solved
in isolation, since most issues are interrelated
in our global society. The problems of the
world must be viewed comprehensively, planning
must anticipate the trends to stay ahead of
them, and then we must engineer solutions
to meet both man's needs and environmental
sustainability.
After
thorough cataloguing of the earth's resources
and assessment of human survival needs, Fuller
designed the global simulation called the
World GameTM. Giving world planners the potential
for global thinking and solutions, this simulation
set aside politics, prejudice, war and human
ignorance. The purpose of the simulation is:
"to make the world work for 100% of humanity
in the shortest possible time through spontaneous
cooperation without ecological damage or the
disadvantage of anyone."
From
this broad approach to finding global solutions,
it was found that the common denominator of
all societal infra-systems (food, shelter,
health care, sewage, transportation, communication,
education, finance) is electricity. Upon further
research into the electrical delivery system,
it was proposed 25 years ago that the most
globally economic, efficient and sustainable
strategy would be to interconnect regional
power systems into a continuous world electric
energy grid linking renewable energy resources.
This was the premier solution of the World
GameTM -- and a most compelling strategy for
peace and sustainable development(3).
While
this global vision is still decades away,
the interconnection of regional power grids
is well advanced in OECD countries. In 1971,
the United Nations Natural Resources Council
corroborated these findings, placing special
emphasis on the untapped potential of large
renewable sites in the southern hemisphere(4).
Leading to the Earth Summit in 1992, the United
Nations Environmental Program called the energy
grid solution to be "one of the most
important opportunities to further the cause
of environmental protection and sustainable
development."(5)
Technological
development moves power further and cheaper
Technological advances over the past two decades
have extended the interconnection of international
and inter-regional networks. Just five decades
ago, electric power could only be efficiently
transmitted 600 kilometers. In the 1960's,
breakthroughs in materials science, improved
alloys for conductors and better insulators,
extended this transmission distance to 2500
kilometers. Today, research from the International
Conference on Large High-Voltage Electric
Systems (CIGRE) shows that the feasible and
economic distance of ultra-high voltage (UHV)
transmission to be 7000 kilometers for direct
current and 4000 kilometers for alternating
current(6). Transmission over this distance
would allow for power interchange between
North and South hemispheres, allowing utilities
to compensate for variations in seasonal demand,
as well as East and West linkages across continents
and time zones. Buying and selling power is
now common in all developed nations, as utilities
desire to level the peaks and valleys of energy
demand to save costs and increase reliability.
A
Win-Win Solution to Global Problems
Economic Benefits:
Expanding and interconnecting power grids
has proven to be economically desirable. In
developed countries, billions of dollars are
presently being saved through buying, selling
and wheeling power between neighboring utilities
and countries. This practice can expand even
more to meet future demand. Also, the deregulation
of utilities brings many new generation options,
whether locally based or in a neighboring
country. Savings are reflected in reduced
customer costs, while expanding markets for
each power producer -- a massive win-win situation.
The
economic potential of UHV technology for the
developing regions is immense. Some of the
world's most abundant renewable potential
exists in the developing continents of Latin
America, Africa and Asia. Exports of these
excess untapped potential could be purchased
by the industrialized world, providing cheaper
and cleaner power for the North, and simultaneously
sending needed cash to the developing world.
History shows that equitable trade engenders
cooperation. Thus, long-distance transmission
via grid interconnections can contribute not
only to expanding international trade but
also world peace and security.
Environmental
Opportunity:
Presently, 82% of all power generation is
non-renewable, causing many of the world's
most noxious environmental ills -- greenhouse
gases, acid rain, toxic wastes. Yet, enormous
potential for hydro, tidal, solar, wind and
geothermal sites exist around the world. These
renewable resources are oftentimes in remote
locations. With HVAC and HVDC, these renewables
are now within economical transmission distance.
These renewables are critical given the projections
of the World Energy Council of a doubling
of primary energy demand in the next 25 years
as developing countries grow economically
and in population. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded man's
impact on climate change, which will worsen
if the WEC "business as usual" scenarios
prevail. Global insurance companies are deeply
concerned as weather-related property claims
have tripled in the past decade(7).
Alternative
Renewable Energy Future
In 1993, Johansson, Kelly, Reddy and Williams
published "Renewable Energy, Sources
for Fuels and Electricity."(8) This landmark
work offered a major shift in how we could
meet our energy requirements in the coming
decades. Using the same demand projections
as the WEC, the authors projected that the
renewable share could increase from 20% to
60% by 2025, with roughly comparable contributions
from hydropower, intermittent renewables (wind
and direct solar) and biomass. They cited
benefits of this scenario that are not captured
in standard economic models:
increased
economic and social development in rural areas
can help reduce poverty and slow urban migration
land restoration through biomass growth will
help prevent erosion and provide wildlife
habitat reduced air pollution caused from
the burning of fossil fuels on both transportation
and power generation abatement of global warming
as renewable sources produce no carbon dioxide
or other greenhouse gases diversity of the
fuel supply would create more inter-regional
energy trade, and users would become less
vulnerable to monopolies or supply disruptions
reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation
as competitive renewables would reduce the
incentive to build further nuclear supply.
Two conclusions of "Renewable Energy"
are central to our argument. First, "the
levels of renewable energy development indicated
by this scenario represent a tiny fraction
of the potential for renewable energy. Higher
levels might be pursued if society, for example,
should seek greater reductions of CO2 emissions."
Secondly, since most of the abundant renewable
energy sites are in remote areas, oftentimes
in neighboring countries, "most electricity
produced from renewable sources would be fed
into large electrical grids and marketed by
electric utilities." A key environmental
question in the developed economies is that
of replacing present polluting generation
over the next few decades as their economic
life expires. Access to remote renewables
and interconnection of power grids across
political boundaries opens up new economical
and environmentally sustainable alternatives.
The
challenge for developing nations is to bypass
the old development formulas and transition
to sustainable prosperity. Of critical consequence
for the planet is choosing the appropriate
energy path for India, China and Southeast
Asia. Over half the world's 5.9 billion population
lives there now, and linking renewable resources
is essential if we are to reduce atmospheric
emissions in the future.
It
is important to remember that handling personal
survival precedes environmental concern. So,
while end-use efficiency is a priority in
first world economies, energy efficiency and
demand side management in the developing countries
is difficult in times of accelerating energy
demand. Providing the alternative of remote
renewable energy can circumvent traditional
polluting approaches to meeting energy needs,
but will be limited by the availability of
technology and financing. Efficiency improvements
are vital but not sufficient for future trends,
especially in the developing regions of the
world.
It
must also be noted that as a development strategy
for the 2 billion who are unserved by electricity,
what is needed today are small decentralized
generators that can meet basic food, water
and health care needs. Then as development
demand increases and segments of the grid
reach rural areas, the population could connect
to the expanding grid network.
Sustainable
options for the future
Several years ago, the IEEE/PES International
Practices Committee hosted a panel session
on "Tapping Remote Renewables."
A summary of the expert comments present strong
evidence for the intentional development of
large renewable resources linked by high-voltage
transmission.
Len
Bateman, retired Chairman of Manitoba Hydro
stated, "Over 100 interconnected lines,
ranging from low voltage to 765kV, cross the
border between Canada and the United States,
transporting over 8000MW of electric power.
The export of electricity is equivalent to
the export of finished industrial products.
With the export of hydroelectric power, there
is no depletion on Canada's power resources.
Undeveloped hydro potential in the world energy
equation represents waste. If these sites
are environmentally sound they represent a
source of energy that can quality as a sustainable
development."(9)
Potential
Major Renewable Sites
A similar case is made in Africa by Professor
Luigi Paris of the University of Pisa, "Transmission
is the best renewable energy available today.
In Europe, the Inga (Central African hydro)
can be delivered at a price competitive with
the energy produced with oil. The implementation
of the Grand Inga project will assure to the
African developing countries may social benefits.
It is important to know that the exported
hydroelectric energy does not reduce the potential
richness of the developing country, such as
the case of oil or coal exportation."(10)
Another
massive renewable potential exists in many
tidal sites around the world. The Siberian
Energy Institute reviewed the Shelikhov Gulf
in the Okhotsk Sea in eastern Russia, and
found an 80GW tidal resource potential. The
Kimberly region of Australia has a tidal potential
of 240MW, which is eight times the current
demand of the nation. Both of these locations
are remote from any population centers or
industry, so UHV transmission is the only
way to delivery this electricity.
The
Union of Concerned Scientists report on "Powering
the Midwest" offers a representative
example of the wind potential of many regions
of the world. "Wind energy promises to
be one of the least expensive and most abundant
new sources of electricity for the Midwest
US. The region's wind resources are second
to none in the world. . . there is more than
enough wind to supply all the region's electricity
demand (although this would most likely be
impractical)."(11) In this case the grid
system is already in place.
Sanyo
Electric is one of many companies working
to make solar PV cost competitive. While many
small scale applications for PV are in use
in rural villages, Sanyo's plans call for
large solar arrays in the deserts of the world
connected to UHV transmission. Their studies
show that an 800 km by 800 km area (just 4%
of the world's deserts) would be sufficient
to provide the entire electrical needs of
the planet.(12)
And
system planner Michael Hesse Wolfe summarized
Mid-East solar potential by saying, "There
is enough for all. One statistic is enough.
On the Arabian peninsula there is enough solar
energy every year which is equivalent to their
entire petroleum reserve that ever was. Every
year. . . We have an abundance of renewable
energy resources on hand. It is up to us as
we near the turn of the century to think seriously
about developing these resources for the benefit
of humanity and the planet."(13)
The
question is: how do we meet the energy demands
of a growing world in an environmentally sustainable
manner? The electrical interconnection of
large renewable energy resources around the
world offers a very compelling strategy.
Mr.
Meisen is a graduate (1976) of the University
of California, San Diego with an Applied Mechanics
and Engineering Sciences Degree. In 1986,
he founded Global Energy Network Institute
(GENI), a non-profit organization conducting
research and education on the interconnection
of electric power networks between countries
and continents with an emphasis on tapping
remote renewable energy resources. He is a
speaker and author on the global issues of
renewable energy, transmission and distribution
of electricity, quality of life and its relationship
to electricity, the environment and sustainable
development.
Summary
|
