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U.S. energy agency predicts 75% more CO2 emissions by 2030

2006-06-25 - International

The International Energy Outlook 2006 foresees a rise of global energy consumption by 71% between 2003 and 2030, resulting in an increase of world-wide carbon dioxide emissions by 75% over the same period.

The world economy remains hungry for energy notwithstanding calls for more energy efficiency and the increasing scientific consensus on the dangers of global warming. This can be deducted from a new Energy Outlook published by the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical administration, the EIA (Energy Information Administration).

Main projections for the period 2003 to 2030 mentioned in the report:

    * world energy consumption will grow on average by 2% per year from 2003 to 2030 (from 421 quadrillion Btu in 2003 to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030). The most rapid growth is in non-OECD countries;
    * the industrial sector has the highest energy use growth (2.4% per year), whereas the growth of energy use in the transport sector slows down as a result of higher oil prices;
    * oil will remain the dominant energy source; world oil use will grow from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 (86 million today) to 118 million barrels in 2030. OPEC will provide the majority of this increase (+ 14.6 million barrels per day) and there will be more use of non-OPEC oil and unconventional resources biofuels, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids);
    * natural gas consumption will increase on average by 2.4% per year;
    * world coal consumption will increase by 3% per year on average (esp. in China);
    * world nuclear capacity will rise from 361 gigawatts in 2003 to 438 gigawatts in 2030, but with significant declines in Europe;
    * renewables will only grow from 8% in 2003 to 9% in 2030;
    * global carbon dioxide emissions will increase from 25 billion metric tons in 2003 to 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030.

Energy supply and policies to tackle global warming are also on the agenda of the 21 June EU-US Summit in Vienna.

Source: Euractive

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