U.S. energy agency predicts 75% more CO2 emissions by 2030
2006-06-25 - International
The International Energy Outlook 2006 foresees a rise of global energy
consumption by 71% between 2003 and 2030, resulting in an increase of
world-wide carbon dioxide emissions by 75% over the same period.
world economy remains hungry for energy notwithstanding calls for more
energy efficiency and the increasing scientific consensus on the
dangers of global warming. This can be deducted from a new Energy
Outlook published by the U.S. Department of Energy's statistical
administration, the EIA (Energy Information Administration).
Main projections for the period 2003 to 2030 mentioned in the report:
* world energy consumption will grow on average by 2% per year from
2003 to 2030 (from 421 quadrillion Btu in 2003 to 722 quadrillion Btu
in 2030). The most rapid growth is in non-OECD countries;
* the industrial sector has the highest energy use growth (2.4% per
year), whereas the growth of energy use in the transport sector slows
down as a result of higher oil prices;
* oil will
remain the dominant energy source; world oil use will grow from 80
million barrels per day in 2003 (86 million today) to 118 million
barrels in 2030. OPEC will provide the majority of this increase (+
14.6 million barrels per day) and there will be more use of non-OPEC
oil and unconventional resources biofuels, coal-to-liquids,
* natural gas consumption will increase on average by 2.4% per year;
* world coal consumption will increase by 3% per year on average (esp. in China);
* world nuclear capacity will rise from 361 gigawatts in 2003 to 438
gigawatts in 2030, but with significant declines in Europe;
* renewables will only grow from 8% in 2003 to 9% in 2030;
* global carbon dioxide emissions will increase from 25 billion metric
tons in 2003 to 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030.
Energy supply and policies to tackle global warming are also on the agenda of the 21 June EU-US Summit in Vienna.