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Computer Simulation Model
PROJECT PROPOSAL

The Interconnection of Global Power Resources
To Obtain an Optimal Sustainable Energy Solution


ABSTRACT

While availability of electricity is essential for any quality standard of life, currently 82% of electricity is generated by burning finite, nonrenewable and polluting fuels (fossil 77.1% and nuclear 4.9%). Renewable energy (from solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, tidal and biomass) is extremely abundant, inexhaustible, and less polluting. Technologies for converting this energy to electricity are now becoming cost competitive with fossil fuel generation.

Most sites of large scale renewable energy are located in remote areas, far from population centers. But current transmission line technology is capable of delivering electricity economically as far as 4,000 miles (7,000 km) from its source. From a technological viewpoint, interconnection of renewable energy sources is a viable and feasible energy alternative today.

The GENI Computer Simulation Model will be the first comprehensive energy management model to incorporate renewable energy options. The results of this simulation will support integrated energy resource planning by quantifying the impact of the method of power generation on not only economic, but also social, health and environmental conditions.

In the model, the world will be segmented into the same nine geographical regions used by the World Energy Council (WEC). Each regional sector model will encompass power generation, transmission, and sale; the financing, construction, and maintenance of power infrastructure (generators and transmission lines); and key societal and environmental factors such as population, quality of life, and pollution. Links between regions will model trade in electricity, inter-regional financing of infrastructure, and pollution flow across regional boundaries.

In addition to the nine regional sectors, a global sector model will simulate worldwide climatic effects of electricity generation, as well as global coordination of electrical generation decision-making.

The budget for the project is $ 1.575 M.

PURPOSE

The purpose of the GENI Computer Simulation Model Project is to research, design, and implement a computer model to quantify the economic, environmental, and social benefits of developing remote renewable energy sources and linking them to population centers via long distance electrical transmission lines.

This covers everything from preliminary research through production of final printed and computer format output. The model will demonstrate whether this course of action represents an optimal, sustainable, energy solution for the world by comparing this approach to those produced by the World Energy Council (WEC) and others.

This powerful and flexible analysis tool will be made available to governments, utilities, universities, and utility support markets. The target price per licence is $___.

Listed below are the elements of the computer modelling project. It corresponds to the milestone chart.

PROCESS

I. Presentation Standardization

Preliminary program Specification, Talking Model, and Presentation materials have been developed. All materials relating to the document "Computer Simulation Model a Research Project" (see attached) need to be revised and updated for consistency with latest research.

II. Problem Definition

This is the refinement of the expectations for the outputs desired from the computer model. "Outputs" are items such as projections of the population, energy consumption, and pollution in each world region at various points in the future. The number and type of items included in the Problem Definition determine, to a large extent, the scope of the project as a whole and, consequently, its cost.

III. Model Specification

This is a detailed design document which describes all aspects of what the computer model will do, how it is to be organized, what types of outputs are expected from it, and how the outputs will be derived from the internal structure of the model. During later stages of the project, the Model Specification is the primary reference document which is consulted when implementation decisions need to be made.

A well thought out specification results in a smoother implementation process and lowers project costs by reducing wasted effort and rework.

IV. Prototype/"Talking Models"

In the implementation of large computer projects, it is essential to create limited-function prototype programs or "talking models" (simple models used when talking about the project within the project team). These prototypes provide an important aid in visualizing interactions between different parts of the model (e.g., power demand and supply) and a means for discussing the impact of proposed changes to the design. Talking models have been proposed by The Society for Computer Simulation (SCS). One 2-Region "talking model" has already been built.

V. Research

This covers the search for and retrieval of world demographic data and technical papers on power generation, population dynamics, pollution effects, and other elements of world society that are to be included in the model. This forms both the raw data "input" to the model as well as a basis for the model's detailed structure (e.g., exactly what effect does increased electricity availability have on birth rates?). An outline of an on-line Internet database retrieval system has been developed and is ready for immediate implementation. Research is envisioned in three stages:

  1. Collect and study existing related computer models (This has been done).
  2. Create and maintain a data collection system (This has been partially designed).
  3. Collect relevant data

VI. Model Design, Implementation and Verification

Model design extends the specification by planning the low-level implementation of each section of the real model. These plans are then implemented in the selected modelling language.

Verification makes sure that the preliminary output of the model makes sense, both for each section and for the model as a whole. Verification can include comparing the model results to outputs of other global models, and, starting at a point in the past (say, 1950), simulating through the present to see how the outputs match current figures.

VII. Model Simulation (producing "final" model runs)

Once the model has been implemented and its basic operation verified, a series of "final" runs will be carried out. A model "run" means starting at the present time with a given set of assumptions and simulating year-by-year results into the future (usually 50-100 years). A series of runs will be carried out with different assumptions about present and future behavior, priorities, and technical development.

The result of each run is a set of tables and charts representing projected future values of population, energy supply and demand, pollution, and other factors as defined in the Specification.

VIII. Output of Final Results

Articles, graphs, charts and other materials will be prepared for use in publicizing the results of the model through GENI's education programs. This will involve preparation of all the final output of various printed reports and computer disk versions of the final results as follows:

  1. Executive summary
  2. Brochure summary
  3. Book or final report
  4. Appendices
  5. Cost/benefit analysis
  6. User-friendly disk
  7. Full model at GENI
  8. Full model on CD-ROM
  9. User guide for model on CD-ROM
  10. Multimedia presentation of CD-ROM
  11. Computer game version of the model

IX. Product/Output Marketing and Distribution

Once developed, this system analysis and database access tool will be marketed to utility and government analysts and decision makers world wide. Some of this will take place at the conferences of the WEC, Conference Internationale des Grands Reseaux Electriques (CIGRE), Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) , SCS and well as through United Nations (UN) and World Bank (WB) channels.

SUPPORT SERVICES

X. Project Documentation

Providing archival support for the project involves maintaining archival backups of computer files at checkpoints along the way, communication files, and other project documents. It also requires maintaining a project diary or progress history to document how the project was accomplished, when key decisions were made, and minutes of formal meetings.

XI. Team Communications

Communicating ongoing technical progress to computer model team members and outside consultants and advisers is essential. This will include getting feedback on designs and distributing information in preparation for meetings attended by GENI.

XII. Conferences

Conferences of technical and other organizations will be attended to present ongoing progress papers on the model and to solicit outside technical support. Primarily, this will be presentations at meetings of the SCS and global energy associations (e.g., CIGRE, WEC, etc.).

XIII. Organization Communications

Communication of ongoing progress to sponsors, GENI Board, Officers, Affiliates, and interested trade organizations will keep appropriate people informed on progress and expenses and answer all other inquiries from within the sponsoring and GENI organization.

XIV. Administration

Miscellaneous administrative functions, such as computer maintenance, communications, organizing, and internal meetings will be necessary. Articles, graphs, charts and other materials will need to be prepared for use in GENI's educational projects while the project is going on. This is distinct from documentation of final results. In addition, GENI will maintain a technical library for current and convenient access to cutting edge articles.

XV. Project Management

Project management provides leadership for success of the project including team selection, task management, evaluation, fiscal control, follow up reporting to sponsors, scientific community and GENI, as well as to potential clients of the output.

COMPUTER MODEL UPGRADES

After the initial computer model project is "completed," GENI will continue research, development, and modification of the model on a less demanding schedule. This is necessary to incorporate new data, to respond to suggestions from researchers and customers, and to test additional assumptions and scenarios. This picks up where the computer model milestone chart leaves off.

Since these expenses will not start until the model is complete and are outside the attached budget, this section is only included for completeness of project presentation. There is wide latitude here in how much time and effort is spent on this activity, depending on GENI priorities at that time. At a minimum, GENI plans to produce a general update of the published output at one year intervals after the original completion of the model (annual updates to ensure the model is relevant to current conditions). Continued work on the model will entail the following:

  1. Research new pertinent data, models & publications
  2. Incorporate new data and information
  3. Refine the model
  4. Expand the model
  5. Carry out new scenarios
  6. Update original "final" documents
  7. Present ongoing papers and technical material as required for different venues

Summary of Budget Requirements

The budget for the initial project is $1.575 million.

The estimated time needed to accomplish the project (to develop and test the model) is sixteen months.

Staff requirements were determined based on the estimated time needed to accomplish each task within the sixteen month time frame.

Budget figures are calculated on a burdened rate of pay twice the actual salary.

Actual figures for attendance at conferences to present the model are included.


Enclosures

Budget

Milestones chart

Model Block Diagram

"The GENI Model: The Interconnection of Global Power Resources to Obtain an Optimal Global Sustainable Energy Solution," Simulation, April, 1995.


Technical Team and Advisors

Principle Investigators:

  • Peter Meisen
  • Paul-Michael Dekker
  • Walt Venable
  • Amy Bruton

Peter Meisen ( B.S.)

Mr. Meisen founded and is currently President of Global Energy Network Institute (GENI), a non-profit organization based in San Diego. He graduated with a degree in Applied Mechanics and Engineering Science from the University of California/San Diego in 1976. In 1983, he co-founded SHARE, (Self Help And Resource Exchange), North America's largest private food distribution program, currently serving over one million people each month in the USA, Mexico and Guatemala.

In 1991, Mr. Meisen incorporated Global Energy Network Institute (GENI) with a mission "to accelerate the attainment of optimal, sustainable, energy solutions in the shortest possible time for the peace, health and prosperity for all." Specifically, Mr. Meisen advocates a globally interconnected electrical network "linking remote renewable energy resources around the world."

Paul Michael Dekker ( B.A. Sc.)

Mr. Dekker received his degree in Systems Design Engineering from University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in 1980. He worked 9 years with Unisys (Winnipeg, Manitoba), and 1 year with the Board of Education of the City of York (Toronto, Ontario). He owns Byte Butler and is a business consultant in systems design and testing, renewable electricity, on-line marketing, and telecommunications.

Walt Venable (B.Sc.)

Mr. Venable received his degree in physics from Carnegie-Mellon University in 1980 and has

had fifteen years experience with all aspects of computing, including program, systems and interface design, project management, firmware/embedded systems, documentation, programming (assembly through 4GL) and has developed automated coding tools.

Amy Bruton (B.A., M.A.)

Ms. Bruton received a dual B.A. from Bates College and a joint M.A. in International Relations and Resource and Environmental Management from Boston University. She has written draft policy for the Hungarian government on the resolution of the Gabcikovo-Ngymaros Hydroelectric plant conflict. She has advised the Hungarian political party FIDESZ, on campaign strategies during Hungary's transition from communism to democracy. Amy has written an analysis of the IEA/ORAU long-term global energy-CO2 model and has worked with various other global models.


Technical Advisers

  • Vince Amico
  • Len Bateman
  • Mark Clymer
  • Joseph Falcon
  • Barry Hughes
  • Wayne Ingalls
  • Don Robinson
  • John Warren
  • Dr. A. Martin Wildberger
  • Michael Hesse Wolfe
  • Dennis Woodford
Vince Amico (B.A. E., M.B.A., MSc. E.)

Mr. Amico has had a distinguished lifetime naval career in aircraft structural design and simulator technology. During that career, he was responsible for development of simulators for a variety of naval systems including aircraft, ships, submarines, sonar, radars and the like. As a project Engineer, he was responsible for the development of a number of flight simulators. Being promoted to positions of Branch and Division Head, he was assigned as Chief Engineer of the simulators that supported the Navy's Polaris Ballistic Missile Program and introduced the commercial general purpose digital computer to solve the mathematical models of a simulator.

At the Special Devices Center, in various capacities as Director of Engineering and Director of Research, he oversaw the Exploratory Advance Development programs that supported the development of simulators. While there, he made several significant contributions to Simulator technology: a potentiometer tapping kit as a supply item instead of supporting a variety of special potentiometers used in nonlinear function generation; specified the use of a general purpose digital computer instead of an analog computer in a simulator in 1959; the use of multiple computers in multi-platform simulator systems; and the use of FORTRAN as an alternative to Assemble language for real time programs. Within a few years, FORTRAN was accepted as the high level language of real time simulators.

After retirement from the Navy, Mr. Amico became an independent consultant. He is affiliated with the University of Central Florida's Continuing Education programs, which includes teaching a number of short courses in Simulator Program Management and Engineering Short Courses. Currently, he specializes in workshops and short courses that support the Institute of Simulation and Training at the University of Central Florida.

Len Bateman (B.Sc. and M.Sc. Electr. E.)

Mr. Bateman is an electrical engineer with postgraduate degrees in Engineering and Business Administration. He has served as Chairman and CEO of Manitoba Hydro and President of the Canadian Electrical Association. With his assistance, the renewable resource development in Manitoba is now a model for countries around the world who seek Mr. Bateman's consultation. He has represented Canada at the World Energy Council and spoken around the world on the potential benefits of HVDC power transmission.

Mr. Bateman is a globally recognized authority on high voltage interconnections and, for six years, chaired the CIGRE Study Committee on High Voltage Direct Current Links. His experience on the economics of interconnections between electric utilities is also globally recognized. He is currently President and CEO of Bateman and Associates, Ltd., an engineering consulting company he founded in 1979 and formerly served on GENI's Board of Directors.

Mark Clymer (BSc.)

Mr. Clymer received a degree in Natural Resources Technology in 1977 from Lake Superior State University and has 20 years experience in the area of Resource Management, Corporate Ecology, and Management Information Systems. As Vice President of PSI, Power Services, he managed the U.S. contingent of an automotive service tool development team, working with various manufacturers in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan. Since 1987, as President of the Upper Peninsula Environmental Regenesis Corporation (UPER), Mr. Clymer has provided consulting services to both public and private sector entities, ranging from Enhanced 911 Emergency Dispatch Management Development to Decision Support, Applied Strategic Planning, Workflow Design, and Computerized Information Systems Implementation.

Currently, he is Chair of the Mission Earth Activity for the Society for Computer Simulation

Joseph Falcon (B.Sc. and M. Sc. Mech. Eng., P.E.)

Mr Falcon has over four decades of experience in the energy industry. In 1987, he founded and is currently a partner in J.A. Falcon & Associates, consulting in independent power generation and co-generation. Prior to that Mr. Falcon was associated with the design and construction of fossil fuelled and nuclear fuelled power facilities domestically and overseas. He has complemented his industrial career as a member of the faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles for 32 years. He is past President of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (1992-93) and formerly served as a GENI Board member.

Barry Hughes (B.Sc., PhD.)

Dr. Hughes earned a B.Sc. in Mathematics from Stanford in 1967 and his Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Minnesota in 1970. He taught at Case Western Reserve University, 1970-80. He is now Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver and serves as the university's Vice Provost for Graduate Studies. His principal research interests are in the areas of (1) international politics, (2) computer simulation models for economic, energy, food and population forecasting, (3) policy analysis, and (4) global futures. The fundamental concern that synthesizes these special interests is in developing effective international response to long-term global change.

Dr. Hughes has consulted for the governments of Germany, Iran, and Egypt, as well as for various agencies of the U.S. Government. He has taught courses in Costa Rica and China. He has written The Domestic Context of American Foreign Policy, (Freeman, 1978), World Modelling (Lexington, 1980), World Futures (Johns Hopkins, 1985), Disarmament and Development (Prentice-Hall, 1991, 1994, forthcoming 1997), and International Futures (Westview, 1993, forthcoming 1996) as well as numerous articles.

Wayne Ingalls (B.A.)

Mr. Ingalls, with a degree in mathematics from University of Washington, has 37 years experience with the Boeing Company. While there, he has served in the capacity of senior principal scientist (mathematics and modelling), systems analyst (engineering computing, D&SC support), principal engineer (realtime simulation, D&SG support). His qualifications are 28 years of progressive expertise using FORTRAN, ASSEMBLY LANGUAGE, BASIC, ADA, PASCAL and various problem oriented languages. These have been applied in the areas of simulation and modelling, mathematical applications, software problem solving, data acquisition and control, computer program development, and computer program documentation.

He has authored six journal papers and numerous technical reports, edited two books on simulation and referees for numerous journal papers. His professional affiliations include the International Neural Network Society, the American Mathematical Society, and senior vice president for the Society for Computer Simulation.

Don Robinson (Ashley-Robinson & Brody, Inc.)

Mr. Robinson is the President and a senior consultant of Ashley-Robinson & Brody, Inc. - a firm providing systems engineering services internationally to utility and industrial clients, as well as assistance to utilities on issues related to power system planning, transmission use, system operation and power contracts.

Prior to founding AR&B, Don spent over 20 years with Ontario Hydro in a series of engineering and management positions in System Planning, Operations, Engineering, Computing Systems development, Management Audit. Don resigned from Ontario Hydro in 1984 to form AR&B; he was then Director of System Planning responsible for all generation and bulk transmission.

Mr. Robinson led the studies leading to approval of Ontario Hydro's original EMS (Energy Management System) installation. He was responsible for all software and system integration on the actual project. Subsequently, he managed the ongoing maintenance and upgrades to the installation plus planning of future control systems for the bulk power system.

Don has been actively involved in AR&B consulting studies for utilities ranging throughout North America and in Europe. These have been at both the distribution level and the bulk power level including power system planning, transmission use, system operation, power contracts and EMS/SCADA systems.

Don is an electrical engineer and a member of the APEO and IEEE.

John Warren (B.Sc., M.B.A., M.Sc.)

John Warren is Senior Program Manager with Pacific Northwest Laboratories, operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy, in Richland, Washington, He provides consulting in the application of industrial ecology, life cycle assessment, innovative information tools, and pollution prevention technologies to strategic environmental management systems and business decisions.

At Battelle, he is working on the development of strategic environmental management (SEM) systems, industrial ecology applications, design for environment (DFE) tools, environmental decision tools for the textile industry, and ECYCLE, a tool for integrating economic, ecological, engineering, and energy knowledge for analysis of new and emerging technologies.

Mr. Warren has chaired an innovative series of four Engineering Foundation Conferences on pollution prevention and industrial ecology and chaired the first international conference on the development of eco-industrial parks in San Diego in May, 1995.

He has an M.B.A. from Duke University, a Masters in Forest Land Use Planning from N.C. State University and a B.Sc. in biological and pre-medical sciences from Davidson College with over 20 years working in the environmental and business policy fields.

Dr. A. Martin Wildberger (B.Sc., M. Sc., Ph. D)

Dr. Wildberger is an Executive Scientist in Strategic Research and Development (SR&D) at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, California. He manages the exploratory research program in mathematics and information science and provides institute-wide applied science and technology support in mathematical modelling and computer simulation.

Prior to joining EPRI in 1992, Dr. Wildberger was, for eleven years, Chief Computer Scientist at General Physics Corporation, where he designed and lead the development of computer-based systems involving real-time multi-processing, artificial intelligence (AI) and graphical user interfaces. He served for over twenty years as an officer in the U.S. Navy specializing in aerospace engineering. In this capacity, he initiated and managed a variety of projects in digital controls, missile guidance, and electronic counter-measures. He has also held both teaching and research positions at Howard University and University of Maryland.

Dr. Wildberger received his B. Sc. degree (cum laude) from Fordham University, his M.Sc. degree from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Engineering School and his Ph. D. from the Catholic University of America. He has published or presented over seventy technical papers and has been, since 1987, the editor of a monthly column in Simulation entitled: AI and Simulation.

Michael Hesse Wolfe (BSc.)

Mr. Wolfe has comprehensive experience in the energy and power industry, including service with an operating electric power utility, an electrical plant manufacturer, and international consulting engineering organizations. He has worked on international energy and power planning projects for international institutions, including the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and USAID. In-country experience includes long term overseas assignments in the Philippines, Nicaragua and Western Samoa and short term foreign assignments in mainland countries and island nations.

Dennis Woodford (B.E., M.Sc.)

Mr. Woodford graduated from the University of Melbourne in 1967 with a B.E(Hons) and from the University of Manitoba in 1973 with an M.Sc. degree. From 1967 to 1970, he worked with the English Electric Company in Australia and the U.K. In 1972, he joined Manitoba Hydro and worked as Special Studies Engineer in Transmission Planning. In 1986, he joined the Manitoba HVDC Research Centre as Executive Director. He is a member of CIGRE, IEEE, and the Canadian Electrical Association. He is an Adjunct Professor with the University of Manitoba and a registered Professional Engineer with the Province of Manitoba.