Linking the renewable energy resources around the world solar wave- tidal hydro wind biomass geothermal ...is the highest priority of the power industry, development organizations, and the environmental community. Dear GENI Friend; 1992 will be remembered as the year the GENI initiative reached the foremost energy and environmental organizations around the world. Newspaper and magazine articles, as well as radio and television interviews reached millions globally. In this issue, we report on the insights and contacts made at four international meetings: The Earth Summit - Rio de Janeiro, June IEEE/Power Engineering Society - Seattle, July CIGRE (International Conference on Large High Voltage Electric Systems) - Paris, August-September World Energy Conference - Madrid, September Perfectly timed, the cover story of the June '92 IEEE Power Engineering Review magazine featured the panel session we helped coordinate earlier in the year. Entitled Tapping Remote Renewables, the discussion reached over 23,000 engineers and was prophetic in identifying the new edge for GENI. We've learned several critical elements of the global energy puzzle as a consequence of these meetings: Integration of electric networks is on the agenda in every world region, and in many cases a priority. The demand for energy will certainly grow as a result of the expanding population of the developing world — projections vary, but most expect energy demand to double in the next two to three decades. The most environmental driven scenario of the World Energy Conference only increases the renewable portion from 20% to 30%. The climate change agreements signed in Rio agree to cap greenhouse emissions at 1990 levels. Putting these together, you have the classic, you can't get there from here result. It's clear that GENI must refine the focus — to linking renewable energy resources around the world. There seems to be an abundance of renewable energy resources on the planet. The question is — can these be tapped and delivered to the demand of our cities and industry. We're currently working to develop the computer simulation model that energy and environmental planners can use as a future roadmap. We ask for your sponsorship and endorsement of this investigation. GENI needs and welcomes your contribution. Sincerely, Peter Meisen Executive Director

Global
Exposure:

IEEE Power
Engineering Society
New York, January 27 - 30

United Nations Conference
on the Environment and Development,
"The Earth Summit,"
Rio de Janeiro, June 1 - 14

International Conference on Large High-Voltage
Electric Systems
CIGRE, Paris, August 30 - September 3

World Energy Conference
Madrid, September 21 - 25

Global
Concern

Tapping Remote Renewables —
an Opportunity for Transition

At the Earth Summit, Peter Meisen (R) explains GENI to Rt. Hon. Michael Howard, Secretary of State for the Environment, United Kingdom

What if you had a crystal ball? Of course you would want to know the future. This year, GENI has been good-fortuned. We have received enough pieces of our global puzzle to be able to project a reasoned forecast.

On some issues, the trends are clear. The prediction is very alarming. How our world leaders decide to deal with those issues is critical.

Just as cancer takes many years to be recognized in our bodies, the energy and environmental choices we make today will determine our planet's health over the next twenty to thirty years. Many experts have said that a shift to sustainable development over this period is essential, or the treatment may be too late.

World Population vs. Energy Demand

Our global population continues to grow at accelerated rates. We now add a billion people in just one decade. This is most striking when you realize that we only had 2.5 (?)billion at the beginning of this century, compared to 5.4 billion today.

Nearly all of this population increase will come from the developing countries. Just as noteworthy, once a society reaches an adequate living standard, the rate of growth levels off. Many development specialists feel that the only way to curtail the birth rates in developing nations is to help those people improve their living standards as quickly as possible.

Figure 1 - Projected Global Population

The demand for energy seems to follow an almost identical trend. The new people will escalate the demand for energy, while first and second world economies have learned to be more efficient with resources. Being able to do "more with less" is a natural law, once you have gone beyond basic subsistence.

Figure 2 - Projected Global Energy Demand

Ideally, this new energy production would build upon the knowledge and technology already experienced by developed economies. However, two of the stickiest issues to solve in Rio were transfer of technology and financing. The developing would like to be environmentally appropriate, but require the help from nations who are currently more concerned with a global recession.

Current Policies vs. Environmental Driven Scenario

For the first time, the World Energy Conference divided the world into eight regions (closely following continental contours) and conducted in depth study of historical energy patterns. With that, each region could then project forward the energy usage in the region. Three scenarios were assumed: current policy, enhanced economic policy, and an environmentally driven policy.

Figure 3 - Alternative Energy futures

The point we would like to stress is the anticipated ratio of renewable vs. non-renewable energy sources. While the Current Policy case shows the same growth in energy demand as Figure 2, the percentage change in renewable resource use is negligible. The Enhanced Economic Policy assumed a 1% higher economic growth in developing countries -- pushing total energy demand to 17,200 MTOE (million tons of oil equivalent). However, the renewable portion remained at 20%.

The Environmentally Driven case assumes greater efficiencies are achieved, hence curbing demand in 2020 to 11,200 MTOE. However, these energy planners see the primary sources of coal, oil, gas and nuclear to remain dominant, and the renewables only growing to 30% in the next three decades.

Climate Change Convention

At the Earth Summit, many computer models were developed to simulate the expected CO2 emissions into the atmosphere CO2 is the main greenhouse gas, and a byproduct of fossil fuel combustion).

Many assumptions are made to run these scenarios, yet Figure 5 represents the expectations of most experts in the field.

Figure 4 - Industrial CO₂ Emissions

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested as 60% reduction in CO2 from 1990 levels if we want to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Going the direction we're headed, you just can't get there from here was a poignant comment heard during the meetings in Madrid.

Arnie Wise, Director of GENI, Canada, shows two Earth Summit delegates how electricity can be transferred between continents without running cable under oceans.

The world is once again embarking on a grand chemistry experiment. Thirty years ago, scientists first warned us of the damage chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) would do to our ozone layer. Not until a gaping hole appeared over Antarctica did we commit to phasing these chemicals out of production (Montreal Protocol of 1987). And when ozone depletion was found in the northern hemisphere, we collectively accelerated the process.

Some say that prudence should guide our actions. No arguments with that. Yet, some predictions for the future are evident to all, and the emergency just may be upon us today. We, however, won't see the effects until our children are asked to correct them.

Interconnection of Renewable Energy Resources

GENI also learned that our corporate statement -- conducting education and research on connecting international and inter-regional electric energy networks -- is right on target. In every regional review by the World Energy Conference, the interconnection of electric systems is on the agenda, and in some cases a priority.

Tapping Remote Renewables, IEEE Power Engineering Society Panel Session report.

In Africa, the energy community is studying network expansion throughout the continent -- looking to the 30GW hydro potential of the Zaire River for mutual benefit. The Middle East/North African countries are examining a pan-Arab network. System interconnection is a high priority for the entire Latin American region. And the end of the Cold War has allowed almost immediate linkage of East and West Germany, with all of Europe to become interconnected by the end of the decade.

From our previous newsletter, you read excerpts of six experts from a panel session hosted by the IEEE Power Engineering Society earlier this year. That discussion became the cover story of the Power Engineering Review in June, entitled "Tapping Remote Renewables". This has became prophetic, as we learned more of the issues facing us. If GENI is to act as a trimtab, and alter the direction we are headed, our focus must be refined.

Computer Simulation Model

Over the past few decades, electrical interconnections have become increasingly widespread as technology has improved and the benefits of integrated systems realized. Significant economic benefits have been achieved through interconnected systems, e.g. in North America, Europe, the former USSR and Australia.

Specifically, interconnections provide the following benefits:

• reduced requirement for reserve and spinning capacities
  
  
• improved efficiency
  
  
• optimization of energy mix
  
  
• load leveling between East/West time zones and North/South seasonal variations
  
  
• postponement of capital investment in new generation
  
  
• reduction in fossil fuel emissions and nuclear waste due to efficiency gains
  
  
• improved reliability with regard to reduction of outages, stability of frequency an voltage

Significant progress towards a low emission energy future is possible through the extensive use of interconnections. Many of the large renewable energy sources are located in remote regions, far from load centers. Initially, expanding interconnections will be most viable between regions and ultimately between continents.

Many of the large renewable sources are sited in developing countries. With optimal development, excess power could be exported to developed nations, providing hard currency exchange for the developing country, plus the much needed energy to drive their own economy. An example of this scenario is the proposed Grand Inga project in Zaire with interconnections to Europe. Mutual benefits exist by displacing much of the polluting fossil and potentially unsafe nuclear power in Eastern Europe.

Interconnections are worth in excess of $20 billion per annum to the U.S. economy. The proposed Central American linkage from Columbia to Mexico could net those countries over $1 billion per annum. A recent report from Asea Brown Boveri estimated that greenhouse gas emissions could be replaced by one third from present levels if a realistic and achievable 2000 TWh per annum of renewable (primarily hydro in their study) could be interconnected into existing systems.

The purpose of this research project is to quantify these benefits economically and environmentally, comparing this technology with other solutions using the same benchmarks. These results will quantify the impact of large system planning and prioritize this design scenario in relation to other energy strategies. The ultimate objective is to achieve a low emissions, sustainable energy future for the world, and provide the much needed clean energy to power the economic growth of the world's developing countries. The environmental implications of the developing countries expanding their electricity production in the same manner as the first world, is indeed great cause for concern.

Mike Fisher, GENI Technical Director
Research Project Coordinator

THE NEXT STEPS

From Possibility to Opportunity

Project and ideas go through phases, just as we move through stages of life. After formation, and for many years, GENI remained just a possibility in the world. It had high potential, but remained in the realm of a good idea.

This year, GENI shifted -- becoming an opportunity for the planet to pursue. There are enough people in the world aware of this option, that we must ultimately choose to walk through the opening, or not. Just as trains change tracks, today's choices may involve only a slight deviation from our previous course -- yet the outcome will be vastly different as we move into the next century.

Goals for 1993

1. Computer Simulation Model

creates the scenario of interconnecting renewable resources around the world, and comparing this to other accepted models which anticipate only a moderate push towards renewable and a business-as-usual scenario. This is a essential tool to reassure the engineering and financial communities of the desirability of the project.

2. One Hour Documentary/Film

GENI already has two outstanding 15 minute videos: What If . . . A new Global Option and A WIN-WIN SOLUTION which have been viewed around the world. An independent production company is working on a one hour piece for international television broadcast. The purpose is to educate millions around the world to this synergistic opportunity.

3. International Conference on Electrical Interconnections

Upon recommendation by the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), we have begun formulating plans for this event to be held in Geneva. The qualitative summary of the Winnipeg Workshop, and the above Computer Model, will be the basis for a quantitative analysis in each area: Technical, Economic, Financial, Environmental and Sociopolitical, with implementation groups studying specific inter-regional projects. The designed result is to motivate the financiers and policy makers around the world to make commitments on regional interties.

GENI Milestones

Funding needs for 1993: $1,000,000.
Your generous support is requested.

How can I support GENI?

Request:

• GENI Source Document
• Get on the mailing list (get on the emailing list )

Request a GENI Video

• A Win-Win-Solution (expert discussion)
• What if... a new global option (general public)

Discuss this proposal and share the GENI video with friends and business associates. (Use the Tell your friends about this page feature below)

Write a letter to your political leaders, especially the Presidents of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. and the U.N. Secretary General

Contact your local media regarding a feature story on GENI

Arrange a presentation for GENI at your group's luncheon or trade conference

Contribute money or skills to forward the education of this global opportunity

GENI Support and Products

• GENI Video:
  What if... a new global option
  This 15 minute video has been seen around the world. Designed for the general public, it's the best overview of the GENI Initiative. Introduction by John Denver.
  
  
• GENI T-shirts (no longer offered)
  "Connect the World with GENI" — three color shirt along with Dymaxion™ Map and Grid is guaranteed to get attention and conversation. White shirts with Map in blue and yellow, Grid and print in red.
  
  
• GENI Brochures
  A concise statement on GENI, as well as the benefits in the areas of economics, the environment, international trade and cooperation, hunger and overpopulation. This piece will explain GENI to your firends in 3 minutes.
  
  
• GENI Source Document and Placement on the GENI Mailing List
  You'll receive documentation and support literature on the Global Energy Grid proposal, priority mailing of hardcopy GENI Newsletters, and monthly e-mail updates on the status of this discussion around the world.
  
  
• Dymaxion™ Globe
  Folded from the Dymaxion™ Map, this four-color 6" globe generates conversation on global issues and solutions.
  
  
• New GENI Video:
  A WIN-WIN Solution
  A 15 minute discussion by ten delegates who participated in the International Workshop in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada in July 1991. The consensus statement strongly corroborated the GENI initiative as very credible. It's a win-win proposal for everyone involved. Joe Falson
  
  
• Reports, Maps, Paper Submissions, and Graphs
  Complete set of documents from International Workshop, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada July 1991 — and Russian/Alaskan Meeting — Anchorage, Alaska, January, 1992. $75 donation.

Our apologies to the Buckminster Fuller Institute for inadvertantly failing to include the following information next to the image of the Dymaxion™ Map: The Buckminster Fuller Institute owns all rights to the Dymaxion™ Map design. The word Dymaxion™ and the Dymaxion™ Map design are trademarks of the Buckminster Fuller Institute. The Map is copyrighted by the Buckminster Fuller Institute, 1938, and is used here by permission.

Dymaxion™ Map Beautiful four color poster printed on heavy-gauge paper. Promises to generate discussions in your home and office.