Computer Simulation Model
Interconnection of Global Power Resources
To Obtain an Optimal Sustainable Energy Solution
While availability of electricity
is essential for any quality standard of life, currently
82% of electricity is generated by burning finite,
nonrenewable and polluting fuels (fossil 77.1% and
nuclear 4.9%). Renewable energy (from solar, wind,
hydro, geothermal, tidal and biomass) is extremely
abundant, inexhaustible, and less polluting. Technologies
for converting this energy to electricity are now
becoming cost competitive with fossil fuel generation.
Most sites of large scale renewable
energy are located in remote areas, far from population
centers. But current transmission line technology
is capable of delivering electricity economically
as far as 4,000 miles (7,000 km) from its source.
From a technological viewpoint, interconnection
of renewable energy sources is a viable and feasible
energy alternative today.
The GENI Computer Simulation
Model will be the first comprehensive energy management
model to incorporate renewable energy options. The
results of this simulation will support integrated
energy resource planning by quantifying the impact
of the method of power generation on not only economic,
but also social, health and environmental conditions.
In the model, the world will
be segmented into the same nine geographical regions
used by the World Energy Council (WEC). Each regional
sector model will encompass power generation, transmission,
and sale; the financing, construction, and maintenance
of power infrastructure (generators and transmission
lines); and key societal and environmental factors
such as population, quality of life, and pollution.
Links between regions will model trade in electricity,
inter-regional financing of infrastructure, and
pollution flow across regional boundaries.
In addition to the nine regional
sectors, a global sector model will simulate worldwide
climatic effects of electricity generation, as well
as global coordination of electrical generation
The budget for the project
is $ 1.575 M.
The purpose of the GENI Computer
Simulation Model Project is to research, design, and
implement a computer model to quantify the economic,
environmental, and social benefits of developing remote
renewable energy sources and linking them to population
centers via long distance electrical transmission
This covers everything from preliminary
research through production of final printed and computer
format output. The model will demonstrate whether
this course of action represents an optimal, sustainable,
energy solution for the world by comparing this approach
to those produced by the World Energy Council (WEC)
This powerful and flexible analysis
tool will be made available to governments, utilities,
universities, and utility support markets. The target
price per licence is $___.
Listed below are the elements of
the computer modelling project. It corresponds to
the milestone chart.
I. Presentation Standardization
Preliminary program Specification,
Talking Model, and Presentation materials have been
developed. All materials relating to the document
"Computer Simulation Model – a Research Project" (see
attached) need to be revised and updated for consistency
with latest research.
II. Problem Definition
This is the refinement of
the expectations for the outputs desired from the
computer model. "Outputs" are items such as projections
of the population, energy consumption, and pollution
in each world region at various points in the future.
The number and type of items included in the Problem
Definition determine, to a large extent, the scope
of the project as a whole and, consequently, its cost.
III. Model Specification
This is a detailed design
document which describes all aspects of what the computer
model will do, how it is to be organized, what types
of outputs are expected from it, and how the outputs
will be derived from the internal structure of the
model. During later stages of the project, the Model
Specification is the primary reference document which
is consulted when implementation decisions need to
A well thought out specification
results in a smoother implementation process and lowers
project costs by reducing wasted effort and rework.
IV. Prototype/"Talking Models"
In the implementation of
large computer projects, it is essential to create
limited-function prototype programs or "talking models"
(simple models used when talking about the project
within the project team). These prototypes provide
an important aid in visualizing interactions between
different parts of the model (e.g., power demand and
supply) and a means for discussing the impact of proposed
changes to the design. Talking models have been proposed
by The Society for Computer Simulation (SCS). One
2-Region "talking model" has already been
This covers the search for
and retrieval of world demographic data and technical
papers on power generation, population dynamics, pollution
effects, and other elements of world society that
are to be included in the model. This forms both the
raw data "input" to the model as well as a basis for
the model's detailed structure (e.g., exactly what
effect does increased electricity availability have
on birth rates?). An outline of an on-line Internet
database retrieval system has been developed and
is ready for immediate implementation. Research is
envisioned in three stages:
- Collect and study existing related
computer models (This has been done).
Create and maintain a data collection system (This
has been partially designed).
- Collect relevant data
VI. Model Design, Implementation
Model design extends the
specification by planning the low-level implementation
of each section of the real model. These plans are
then implemented in the selected modelling language.
Verification makes sure that
the preliminary output of the model makes sense, both
for each section and for the model as a whole. Verification
can include comparing the model results to
outputs of other global models, and, starting at a
point in the past (say, 1950), simulating through
the present to see how the outputs match current figures.
VII. Model Simulation (producing
"final" model runs)
Once the model has been implemented
and its basic operation verified, a series of "final"
runs will be carried out. A model "run" means starting
at the present time with a given set of assumptions
and simulating year-by-year results into the future
(usually 50-100 years). A series of runs will be carried
out with different assumptions about present and future
behavior, priorities, and technical development.
The result of each run is a set of
tables and charts representing projected future values
of population, energy supply and demand, pollution,
and other factors as defined in the Specification.
VIII. Output of Final Results
Articles, graphs, charts
and other materials will be prepared for use in publicizing
the results of the model through GENI's education
programs. This will involve preparation of all the
final output of various printed reports and computer
disk versions of the final results as follows:
- Executive summary
- Brochure summary
- Book or final report
- Cost/benefit analysis
- User-friendly disk
- Full model at GENI
- Full model on CD-ROM
- User guide for model on CD-ROM
- Multimedia presentation of CD-ROM
- Computer game version of the model
IX. Product/Output Marketing and Distribution
Once developed, this system analysis and database
access tool will be marketed to utility and government
analysts and decision makers world wide. Some of this
will take place at the conferences of the WEC, Conference
Internationale des Grands Reseaux Electriques (CIGRE),
Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers
(IEEE) , SCS and well as through United Nations (UN)
and World Bank (WB) channels.
X. Project Documentation
Providing archival support
for the project involves maintaining archival backups
of computer files at checkpoints along the way, communication
files, and other project documents. It also requires
maintaining a project diary or progress history to
document how the project was accomplished, when key
decisions were made, and minutes of formal meetings.
XI. Team Communications
Communicating ongoing technical
progress to computer model team members and outside
consultants and advisers is essential. This will include
getting feedback on designs and distributing information
in preparation for meetings attended by GENI.
Conferences of technical
and other organizations will be attended to present
ongoing progress papers on the model and to solicit
outside technical support. Primarily, this will be
presentations at meetings of the SCS and global energy
associations (e.g., CIGRE, WEC, etc.).
XIII. Organization Communications
Communication of ongoing
progress to sponsors, GENI Board, Officers, Affiliates,
and interested trade organizations will keep appropriate
people informed on progress and expenses and answer
all other inquiries from within the sponsoring and
functions, such as computer maintenance, communications,
organizing, and internal meetings will be necessary.
Articles, graphs, charts and other materials will
need to be prepared for use in GENI's educational
projects while the project is going on. This is
distinct from documentation of final results. In addition,
GENI will maintain a technical library for current
and convenient access to cutting edge articles.
XV. Project Management
Project management provides
leadership for success of the project including team
selection, task management, evaluation, fiscal control,
follow up reporting to sponsors, scientific community
and GENI, as well as to potential clients of the output.
After the initial computer model
project is "completed," GENI will continue research,
development, and modification of the model on a less
demanding schedule. This is necessary to incorporate
new data, to respond to suggestions from researchers
and customers, and to test additional assumptions
and scenarios. This picks up where the computer model
milestone chart leaves off.
Since these expenses will not start
until the model is complete and are outside the attached
budget, this section is only included for completeness
of project presentation. There is wide latitude here
in how much time and effort is spent on this activity,
depending on GENI priorities at that time. At a minimum,
GENI plans to produce a general update of the published
output at one year intervals after the original completion
of the model (annual updates to ensure the model is
relevant to current conditions). Continued work on
the model will entail the following:
- Research new pertinent data, models & publications
- Incorporate new data and information
- Refine the model
- Expand the model
- Carry out new scenarios
- Update original "final" documents
- Present ongoing papers and technical material
as required for different venues
of Budget Requirements
The budget for the initial project
is $1.575 million.
The estimated time needed to accomplish
the project (to develop and test the model) is sixteen
Staff requirements were determined
based on the estimated time needed to accomplish each
task within the sixteen month time frame.
Budget figures are calculated on
a burdened rate of pay twice the actual salary.
Actual figures for attendance at
conferences to present the model are included.
Model Block Diagram
GENI Model: The Interconnection of Global Power Resources
to Obtain an Optimal Global Sustainable Energy Solution,"
Simulation, April, 1995.
Team and Advisors
- Peter Meisen
- Paul-Michael Dekker
- Walt Venable
- Amy Bruton
Peter Meisen ( B.S.)
Mr. Meisen founded and is currently
President of Global Energy Network Institute (GENI),
a non-profit organization based in San Diego. He graduated
with a degree in Applied Mechanics and Engineering
Science from the University of California/San Diego
in 1976. In 1983, he co-founded SHARE, (Self Help
And Resource Exchange), North America's largest private
food distribution program, currently serving over
one million people each month in the USA, Mexico and
In 1991, Mr. Meisen incorporated
Global Energy Network Institute (GENI) with a mission
"to accelerate the attainment of optimal, sustainable,
energy solutions in the shortest possible time for
the peace, health and prosperity for all." Specifically,
Mr. Meisen advocates a globally interconnected electrical
network "linking remote renewable energy resources
around the world."
Paul Michael Dekker ( B.A.
Mr. Dekker received his degree in
Systems Design Engineering from University of Waterloo,
Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in 1980. He worked 9 years
with Unisys (Winnipeg, Manitoba), and 1 year with
the Board of Education of the City of York (Toronto,
Ontario). He owns Byte
Butler and is a business consultant in systems
design and testing, renewable electricity, on-line
marketing, and telecommunications.
Walt Venable (B.Sc.)
Mr. Venable received his degree in
physics from Carnegie-Mellon University in 1980 and
had fifteen years experience with
all aspects of computing, including program, systems
and interface design, project management, firmware/embedded
systems, documentation, programming (assembly through
4GL) and has developed automated coding tools.
Amy Bruton (B.A., M.A.)
Ms. Bruton received a dual B.A. from
Bates College and a joint M.A. in International Relations
and Resource and Environmental Management from Boston
University. She has written draft policy for the Hungarian
government on the resolution of the Gabcikovo-Ngymaros
Hydroelectric plant conflict. She has advised the
Hungarian political party FIDESZ, on campaign strategies
during Hungary's transition from communism to democracy.
Amy has written an analysis of the IEA/ORAU long-term
global energy-CO2 model and has worked
with various other global models.
- Vince Amico
- Len Bateman
- Mark Clymer
- Joseph Falcon
- Barry Hughes
- Wayne Ingalls
- Don Robinson
- John Warren
- Dr. A. Martin Wildberger
- Michael Hesse Wolfe
- Dennis Woodford
Vince Amico (B.A. E., M.B.A.,
Mr. Amico has had a distinguished
lifetime naval career in aircraft structural design
and simulator technology. During that career, he was
responsible for development of simulators for a variety
of naval systems including aircraft, ships, submarines,
sonar, radars and the like. As a project Engineer,
he was responsible for the development of a number
of flight simulators. Being promoted to positions
of Branch and Division Head, he was assigned as Chief
Engineer of the simulators that supported the Navy's
Polaris Ballistic Missile Program and introduced the
commercial general purpose digital computer to solve
the mathematical models of a simulator.
At the Special Devices Center, in
various capacities as Director of Engineering and
Director of Research, he oversaw the Exploratory Advance
Development programs that supported the development
of simulators. While there, he made several significant
contributions to Simulator technology: a potentiometer
tapping kit as a supply item instead of supporting
a variety of special potentiometers used in nonlinear
function generation; specified the use of a general
purpose digital computer instead of an analog computer
in a simulator in 1959; the use of multiple computers
in multi-platform simulator systems; and the use of
FORTRAN as an alternative to Assemble language for
real time programs. Within a few years, FORTRAN was
accepted as the high level language of real time simulators.
After retirement from the Navy, Mr.
Amico became an independent consultant. He is affiliated
with the University of Central Florida's Continuing
Education programs, which includes teaching a number
of short courses in Simulator Program Management and
Engineering Short Courses. Currently, he specializes
in workshops and short courses that support the Institute
of Simulation and Training at the University of Central
Len Bateman (B.Sc. and M.Sc.
Mr. Bateman is an electrical engineer
with postgraduate degrees in Engineering and Business
Administration. He has served as Chairman and CEO
of Manitoba Hydro and President of the Canadian Electrical
Association. With his assistance, the renewable resource
development in Manitoba is now a model for countries
around the world who seek Mr. Bateman's consultation.
He has represented Canada at the World Energy Council
and spoken around the world on the potential benefits
of HVDC power transmission.
Mr. Bateman is a globally recognized
authority on high voltage interconnections and, for
six years, chaired the CIGRE Study Committee on High
Voltage Direct Current Links. His experience on the
economics of interconnections between electric utilities
is also globally recognized. He is currently President
and CEO of Bateman and Associates, Ltd., an engineering
consulting company he founded in 1979 and formerly
served on GENI's Board of Directors.
Mark Clymer (BSc.)
Mr. Clymer received a degree in Natural
Resources Technology in 1977 from Lake Superior State
University and has 20 years experience in the area
of Resource Management, Corporate Ecology, and Management
Information Systems. As Vice President of PSI, Power
Services, he managed the U.S. contingent of an automotive
service tool development team, working with various
manufacturers in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan. Since 1987,
as President of the Upper Peninsula Environmental
Regenesis Corporation (UPER), Mr. Clymer has provided
consulting services to both public and private sector
entities, ranging from Enhanced 911 Emergency Dispatch
Management Development to Decision Support, Applied
Strategic Planning, Workflow Design, and Computerized
Information Systems Implementation.
Currently, he is Chair of the Mission
Earth Activity for the Society for Computer Simulation
Joseph Falcon (B.Sc. and
M. Sc. Mech. Eng., P.E.)
Mr Falcon has over four decades of
experience in the energy industry. In 1987, he founded
and is currently a partner in J.A. Falcon & Associates,
consulting in independent power generation and co-generation.
Prior to that Mr. Falcon was associated with the design
and construction of fossil fuelled and nuclear fuelled
power facilities domestically and overseas. He has
complemented his industrial career as a member of
the faculty at the University of California, Los Angeles
for 32 years. He is past President of the American
Society of Mechanical Engineers (1992-93) and formerly
served as a GENI Board member.
Barry Hughes (B.Sc., PhD.)
Dr. Hughes earned a B.Sc. in Mathematics
from Stanford in 1967 and his Ph.D. in Political Science
from the University of Minnesota in 1970. He taught
at Case Western Reserve University, 1970-80. He is
now Professor at the Graduate School of International
Studies, University of Denver and serves as the university's
Vice Provost for Graduate Studies. His principal research
interests are in the areas of (1) international politics,
(2) computer simulation models for economic, energy,
food and population forecasting, (3) policy analysis,
and (4) global futures. The fundamental concern that
synthesizes these special interests is in developing
effective international response to long-term global
Dr. Hughes has consulted for the
governments of Germany, Iran, and Egypt, as well as
for various agencies of the U.S. Government. He has
taught courses in Costa Rica and China. He has written
The Domestic Context of American Foreign Policy,
(Freeman, 1978), World Modelling (Lexington,
1980), World Futures (Johns Hopkins, 1985),
Disarmament and Development (Prentice-Hall,
1991, 1994, forthcoming 1997), and International
Futures (Westview, 1993, forthcoming 1996) as
well as numerous articles.
Wayne Ingalls (B.A.)
Mr. Ingalls, with a degree in mathematics
from University of Washington, has 37 years experience
with the Boeing Company. While there, he has served
in the capacity of senior principal scientist (mathematics
and modelling), systems analyst (engineering computing,
D&SC support), principal engineer (realtime simulation,
D&SG support). His qualifications are 28 years
of progressive expertise using FORTRAN, ASSEMBLY LANGUAGE,
BASIC, ADA, PASCAL and various problem oriented languages.
These have been applied in the areas of simulation
and modelling, mathematical applications, software
problem solving, data acquisition and control, computer
program development, and computer program documentation.
He has authored six journal papers
and numerous technical reports, edited two books on
simulation and referees for numerous journal papers.
His professional affiliations include the International
Neural Network Society, the American Mathematical
Society, and senior vice president for the Society
for Computer Simulation.
Don Robinson (Ashley-Robinson
& Brody, Inc.)
Mr. Robinson is the President and
a senior consultant of Ashley-Robinson & Brody,
Inc. - a firm providing systems engineering services
internationally to utility and industrial clients,
as well as assistance to utilities on issues related
to power system planning, transmission use, system
operation and power contracts.
Prior to founding AR&B, Don spent
over 20 years with Ontario Hydro in a series of engineering
and management positions in System Planning, Operations,
Engineering, Computing Systems development, Management
Audit. Don resigned from Ontario Hydro in 1984 to
form AR&B; he was then Director of System Planning
responsible for all generation and bulk transmission.
Mr. Robinson led the studies leading
to approval of Ontario Hydro's original EMS (Energy
Management System) installation. He was responsible
for all software and system integration on the actual
project. Subsequently, he managed the ongoing maintenance
and upgrades to the installation plus planning of
future control systems for the bulk power system.
Don has been actively involved in
AR&B consulting studies for utilities ranging
throughout North America and in Europe. These have
been at both the distribution level and the bulk power
level including power system planning, transmission
use, system operation, power contracts and EMS/SCADA
Don is an electrical engineer and
a member of the APEO and IEEE.
John Warren (B.Sc., M.B.A.,
John Warren is Senior Program Manager
with Pacific Northwest Laboratories, operated
by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy, in
Richland, Washington, He provides consulting in the
application of industrial ecology, life cycle assessment,
innovative information tools, and pollution prevention
technologies to strategic environmental management
systems and business decisions.
At Battelle, he is working on the
development of strategic environmental management
(SEM) systems, industrial ecology applications, design
for environment (DFE) tools, environmental decision
tools for the textile industry, and ECYCLE, a tool
for integrating economic, ecological, engineering,
and energy knowledge for analysis of new and emerging
Mr. Warren has chaired an innovative
series of four Engineering Foundation Conferences
on pollution prevention and industrial ecology and
chaired the first international conference on the
development of eco-industrial parks in San Diego in
He has an M.B.A. from Duke University,
a Masters in Forest Land Use Planning from N.C. State
University and a B.Sc. in biological and pre-medical
sciences from Davidson College with over 20 years
working in the environmental and business policy fields.
Dr. A. Martin Wildberger (B.Sc.,
M. Sc., Ph. D)
Dr. Wildberger is an Executive Scientist
in Strategic Research and Development (SR&D) at
the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo
Alto, California. He manages the exploratory research
program in mathematics and information science and
provides institute-wide applied science and technology
support in mathematical modelling and computer simulation.
Prior to joining EPRI in 1992, Dr.
Wildberger was, for eleven years, Chief Computer Scientist
at General Physics Corporation, where he designed
and lead the development of computer-based systems
involving real-time multi-processing, artificial intelligence
(AI) and graphical user interfaces. He served for
over twenty years as an officer in the U.S. Navy specializing
in aerospace engineering. In this capacity, he initiated
and managed a variety of projects in digital controls,
missile guidance, and electronic counter-measures.
He has also held both teaching and research positions
at Howard University and University of Maryland.
Dr. Wildberger received his B. Sc.
degree (cum laude) from Fordham University, his M.Sc.
degree from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Engineering
School and his Ph. D. from the Catholic University
of America. He has published or presented over seventy
technical papers and has been, since 1987, the editor
of a monthly column in Simulation entitled:
AI and Simulation.
Michael Hesse Wolfe (BSc.)
Mr. Wolfe has comprehensive experience in the energy
and power industry, including service with an operating
electric power utility, an electrical plant manufacturer,
and international consulting engineering organizations.
He has worked on international energy and power planning
projects for international institutions, including
the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and USAID.
In-country experience includes long term overseas
assignments in the Philippines, Nicaragua and Western
Samoa and short term foreign assignments in mainland
countries and island nations.
Dennis Woodford (B.E., M.Sc.)
Mr. Woodford graduated from the University of Melbourne
in 1967 with a B.E(Hons) and from the University of
Manitoba in 1973 with an M.Sc. degree. From 1967 to
1970, he worked with the English Electric Company
in Australia and the U.K. In 1972, he joined Manitoba
Hydro and worked as Special Studies Engineer in Transmission
Planning. In 1986, he joined the Manitoba HVDC Research
Centre as Executive Director. He is a member of CIGRE,
IEEE, and the Canadian Electrical Association. He
is an Adjunct Professor with the University of Manitoba
and a registered Professional Engineer with the Province